NH Races Tighten — With Polls Showing Surprises: 2022 Political Roundup

CONCORD, NH — If you were planning on going to bed early in a week, after the 2022 midterm election results start pouring in, you may have to change your plans.

Polling data a week before the election shows some shifts between the major candidates in New Hampshire, a few within the margins of error.

According to the Real Clear Politics average, Gov. Chris Sununu, the Republican incumbent, has a more than 14 percent lead over Democrat Tom Sherman, a state Senator and doctor. A new St. Anselm College Survey Center poll, released by WMUR-TV on Tuesday, showed the governor with an 18-point lead — his largest lead since polls released in mid-September and early August. Kelly Halldorson and Karlyn Borysenko are also running for governor under the Libertarian designation. They both have been blacked out from all the debates.

One of the most-watched races in the United States is New Hampshire's Senate race.

RCP said U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan(D-NH) has a 2.3 lead against former Gen. Don Bolduc or within the margin of error of most polls. The latest St. A’s poll showed Bolduc with a 1 percent lead — the first time he has led during the entire campaign. RCP has the race a “toss-up” while projecting a “GOP pick up,” based on Bolduc appearing to surge since becoming the Republican nominee. Libertarian Jeremy Kauffman is also on the ballot. He, too, has been kept out of debates. RCP had the race a “safe GOP” seat.

In the 1st Congressional District race, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) has had a 1 to 8 percent lead during the last four polls between early October and mid-September. But the St. A’s poll gave Republican Karoline Leavitt a 6 percent lead, her first lead, which was double the margin of error.

Polling data for U.S. Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH) has given her solid leads during the past six weeks in most polling against Republican Bob Burns. The latest Saint Anselm poll gave her an 8 percent lead. But a UNH poll in mid-September said it was a 3-point race. Also, a New Hampshire Journal/Coefficient poll posted last week but not listed by RCP showed Burns with a 1-point lead.

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• Kuster And Burns Go Toe To Toe In 2nd Congressional District Debate
• Trump's Endorsement Of Bolduc Isn't Pretty, But It Could Still Give Him A Boost
• Poll: Sununu For POTUS? Most Granite Staters Say 'Sure!'
• Analysis: Hassan's Ham-Fisted Handling Of Fair Tax Feeds Doubts About Campaign
• Leadership Fight Looms As Shurtleff, Wilhelm Vie For Top House Spot
• Merrimack County Sheriff Not Featured In Hassan Police Mailer
• Manchester Mall Murder Will Add To Crime Concerns As Midterms Approach
• Sununu And Sherman Spar Over Abortion, School Funding, Energy Policy
• Sherman Shaky In First Debate, Picks Abortion Over Inflation As Most Important NH Issue
• Debates In NH Begin; Ads Blanket State; More: 2022 Political Roundup

Keene Sentinel Backs Sherman

There has been a lot of discussion in media circles about whether newspapers should bother offering editorial endorsements.

A lack of print space, waning readership and influence … the reasons are numerous. At the same time, many newspapers still offer them. Most newspapers in New Hampshire that still offer editorials, tend to slant to the left side of the political spectrum. The one exception is the state’s largest newspaper, the New Hampshire Union Leader.

The Keene Sentinel, which backed Sununu in 2020, has changed its mind and is recommending voters change direction. They came away “impressed” with Sherman’s “way of thinking and his quiet competence” while it chastised Sununu for allowing abortion to be banned after the 24th week via a budget rider.

Read the editorial here.

Newspaper Also Backs Hassan

The Keene Sentinel also endorsed Hassan, saying she had done a lot in her first term in the Senate, including work on rural Internet issues (the newspaper has hosted media discussions about rural issues in the past, via its Radically Rural summit).

The newspaper also chastised Bolduc for his position on abortion and calls to abolish the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Homeland Security.

Cops Back Sununu

For the third time, the New Hampshire Police Association endorsed Sununu for another term.

Mike Geha, a Salem police detective, who is also the president of the New Hampshire Police Association, said the governor had consistently stood with law enforcement on various issues.

“From retirement pay adjustments to ensuring our local forces had funding to cope with COVID and equipment to ensure officers can protect the public each and every day, the NHPA is proud to stand with Chris Sununu,” he said.

Sununu said he was proud to receive the endorsement and New Hampshire was “incredibly blessed” to be the safest state in the nation — “and that’s thanks to the men and women in blue on the front lines keeping us safe.”

Tulsi Still Helping Out

Although she is not physically in the state campaigning for Republicans, former U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, a former Democrat, who once served in the Democratic National Committee leadership, is still helping out.

She and Bolduc penned an opinion piece published on FoxNews.com on Monday (“Why this ex-Democratic Representative and Republican candidate in New Hampshire are working to defeat Hassan”), and she has also cut not one but two radio spots airing in the state: (“True Hero”) (“Whole Life”).

Bolduc has also received endorsements from U.S. Sens. Rand Paul and Tim Scott, both Republicans.

Kuster Attacks Burns In Drug Ad

Kuster has taken to the airwaves to promote some of her legislative accomplishments, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which places a $2,000 cap on some Medicare Part D spending, as well as other measures.

She also attacked burns for saying he would join the Freedom Caucus, where some House members have promoted limiting increases on Medicare and Social Security.

Burns, during interviews, has countered that while he may work in the pharmaceutical industry, he has not received any support from them and will be the candidate who will actually stand up to Big Pharma.

Leavitt Criticizes Pappas For Campaigning With Biden

The First Lady was in New Hampshire for a quick campaign swing, including campaigning with Pappas and other Democrats in Manchester and Portsmouth.

The visit, Leavitt noted, was hours after the CEO of Eversource, one of the largest utility companies in New Hampshire and the region, warned about the lack of power capacity this winter which might lead to blackouts.

Leavitt said Pappas’ support for the administration destroying domestic energy production — which had led to energy costs doubling for many Granite Staters was the leading cause.

"New Hampshire is facing one of the most severe energy crises in our state's history, and energy prices continue to skyrocket,” she said. “Rather than stand up for Granite Staters who are choosing between heating and eating, Chris Pappas celebrated with the people who got us into this mess. Pappas' record proves he will continue to support the radical energy agenda of the Democrat Party that will deplete our energy supply, hike prices further, and cause blackouts across our region this winter.”

Leavitt said she was the only person in the race who would support “unleashing our domestic energy independence to bring prices down for the people of New Hampshire.”

Pappas Supporters Attack Leavitt On Abortion

In Manchester Monday, several Pappas supporters held a press conference criticizing Leavitt’s position on abortion.

“Chris Pappas has always shown that he will stand for women's freedom — for the freedom for women to make their own decisions, their own choices without the interference of politicians or judges,” state Sen. Donna Soucy, the minority leader, said. “He’s fought to restore funding for family planning services on the Executive Council and to pass legislation in Congress that would protect your right to choose.”

Dr. Kristen Bannister, another supporter said she believed the relationship between patients and doctors was “sacred” and sometimes, their decision can be “gut-wrenching.”

Another supporter, Christine Fajardo, said the overturning of Roe vs. Wade was more than just abortion. It was about “each of our own individual ability to carry out our visions for ourselves” without “threat by politicians and judges.”

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