2016 Poll: Strong NH Numbers for Trump, Sanders

Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald have just released the latest New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary polls and the numbers show good news for Donald Trump – who is clearly not fading into the summer sunset – as well as U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, despite a solid debate performance by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

GOP numbers

While his numbers are down slightly from September, Trump is still polling in the high 20s in New Hampshire, according to a sampling of more than 400 likely Republican voters this week. As well, inside the poll is even more good news for the New York real estate tycoon: More than a third of voters – 36 percent – believe that he will be the Republican nominee.

Despite national media pundits suggesting he has arced, according to Real Clear Politics collection of New Hampshire polls, the latest numbers are slightly higher than his average since entering the race in June – 28 percent compared to 27.2 percent average. His previous high in New Hampshire was about 32 percent in a Sept. 15, poll by Gravis.

During an interview with Trump after releasing the poll results on the newspaper’s online broadcast stream, Herald Radio, Trump credited his time spent in the state as well as large crowds attending his rallies for the solid numbers.

“I like the people and they like me,” said Trump of New Hampshire voters.

Coming in second in the poll was Dr. Ben Carson, who received 16 percent in the poll, about 5-plus percentage points higher than his current Real Clear Politics average.

Every other candidate in the race received single digits under 6 percent.

While the poll is great news for both Trump and Carson, voters could change their minds, according to Kelly Myers, the president of RKM Communication and a Fellow at the university’s Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communications at the school. Two-thirds of likely Republican voters say they could change their minds between now and February 2016, the presumed primary date. According to the data, 44 percent of Trump’s support was “firm.” Only U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, with 48 and 75 percent, respectively, had higher firmness ratings based on much lower support in the poll, low single digits.

Dem numbers

Just days after the first debate between Democrats, Sanders continues to maintain a large lead against his main rival, Clinton, according to the latest sampling of 400 likely Democratic voters.

Sanders received 48 percent of the vote while Clinton received 38 percent, according to the data. The results are slightly higher than the Real Clear Politics averages with Sanders showing his best poll numbers yet of the cycle. Clinton was over 50 percent of voters back in May, according to the average. Both former MD Gov. Martin O’Malley and former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb received 2 percent in the poll. Webb has since announced that he is ending his campaign and may run as an independent. Professor Lawrence Lessig received less than 1 percent of the vote while former Gov. Lincoln Chafee received no votes in the poll.

According to the polling data, Sanders out-polled Clinton in nearly every ideological spectrum of voters taking a Democrat ballot, including voters who consider themselves moderate and conservative. Sanders also received the majority of voters of both genders. The only edge Clinton received was with voters 55 and older.

The wild card, of course, remains to be what Vice President Joe Biden decides to do. And when asked, there were some shifts in the numbers: Biden received 19 percent of the vote while Sanders held onto 38 percent of his support and Clinton received 30. Oddly, when asked about Biden, both Lessig and Chafee rose to 1 percent while Webb and O’Malley dropped to 1 percent.

Voters choosing a Democrat ballot, however, overwhelmingly believe that Clinton will be the nominee – 64 percent as compared to 13 for Sanders and 8 for Biden.

View the full Republicans poll results here in PDF.

View the full Democrats poll results here in PDF.