Shaheen Swings Left, Goes Negative, With AIPAC Attack On Sullivan In 1st Congressional District Primary

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Using language that could have come from an ad by Zohran Mamdani or Abdul El-Sayed, NH-01 Democrat Stefany Shaheen launched a negative television ad attacking opponent Maura Sullivan over contributions from pro-Israel donors.

“Maura Sullivan, she’s not telling you that 90% of her campaign money comes from outside our state,” the ad says. “$300,000 bundled from AIPAC donors. $380,000 from Jeff Bezos’ PAC, even from Trump’s ICE contractor. Let’s show them New Hampshire’s not for sale.”

The ad includes an image of a New Hampshire Union Leader article about Sullivan’s AIPAC-linked donors.

A review of campaign records found Sullivan received more than $296,000 from people who also contributed to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee or affiliated groups. That donor overlap does not, by itself, establish that AIPAC bundled the contributions for Sullivan.

Sullivan also accepted $20,000 from NORPAC, a separate pro-Israel political action committee that openly organizes fundraisers and bundles contributions, according to previous NHJournal reporting.

It is the first negative television ad of the Democratic primary to replace U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for U.S. Senate.

Attacks on AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying organization, are more commonly associated with the progressive left than with establishment Democrats like Shaheen. Many of the candidates denouncing AIPAC, like state Rep. Heath Howard and U.S. Senate Democratic candidate Karishma Manzur, don’t believe Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state.

Until two weeks ago, Shaheen declined to say if she supported or opposed U.S. military aid to Israel. She has since announced her support for the Massie Amendment, which would block that aid.

Sullivan has responded to Shaheen’s attack by noting that her campaign has not received a direct contribution from AIPAC. She has also said she would reject the organization’s endorsement if offered.

“These desperate attacks are particularly rich coming from Stefany, who has taken over $158,000 from D.C. lobbyists, including pharma and gun lobbyists,” campaign spokesperson Natalie Silver said.

“Stefany clearly cannot win on her own thin record, so she is making false and misleading attacks against a lifelong public servant and veteran. Granite Staters deserve better from their leaders, and Stefany Shaheen should be ashamed.”

Shaheen has long been viewed as the primary’s frontrunner, thanks solely to her status as the daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, one of the state’s most prominent Democrats.

For months, political observers have wondered when Sullivan would “go negative” against Shaheen. Shaheen’s decision to fire the first shot in opposition has fueled speculation that her campaign is seeing troubling poll numbers.

“When the apparent frontrunner drops a negative ad on her chief rival, either she hears footsteps behind her, or she sees someone moving past her,” said Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political science professor.

“Shaheen’s not doing this if she felt comfortable three weeks out from the primary. Negative ads have unpredictable side effects in primaries.”

Christian Urrutia, a progressive who has made opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza and to AIPAC a central issue, told NHJournal on Tuesday that he believes Shaheen is responding to his campaign’s leadership.

“People follow leaders, and so we’ve been really clear from the beginning … and we stuck to those principles throughout the campaign. That’s why we have 45,000 donations,” Urrutia said. “I think it’s pretty clear Stefany sees that, ‘Hey, people are responding to this leadership. I want to be able to jump in on that train.’”

There has been little public polling in the race, and the few available numbers suggest a wide-open contest.

A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll conducted in June found Shaheen with 22% support, seven percentage points ahead of Sullivan at 15%. No other candidate reached double digits, and 47% of respondents were undecided.

Still, the presumption has been that what many Democrats call the “Shaheen Machine” would deliver for the senator’s daughter. Now, political insiders are asking why Shaheen would go negative — and do so with a message more closely associated with anti-establishment progressives.

AIPAC and its supporters have backed many establishment Democrats, including members of New Hampshire’s congressional delegation. AIPAC endorsed Jeanne Shaheen in 2020 and donated $10,000 to Sen. Maggie Hassan in 2022.

U.S. Reps. Maggie Goodlander and Chris Pappas have both received contributions from AIPAC supporters.

Whether Shaheen’s shift will win over progressive voters focused on Gaza and supportive of single-payer health care remains uncertain, given the other unapologetically progressive candidates in the race.

“I’m reluctant to put myself in the heart and mind of any other candidate,” Urrutia said of Shaheen’s shift on Israel. “I’ll just say it’s convenient.”

The Sullivan campaign says Shaheen’s strategy will not work.

“These false attacks are the exact kind of cynical, D.C.-style politics that make so many voters tune out,” Silver told NHJournal.

“Maura is a Marine Corps veteran running to bring a new generation of leadership to Washington — she doesn’t take a dime from corporate PACs, ICE vendors or AIPAC, and will fight to ban corporate PACs and abolish Trump’s ICE.”

Scala, meanwhile, wonders whether the negative advertising could backfire.

“Don’t underestimate the amount of uncertainty in this race, and how much a negative ad war between the two leading contenders could increase that uncertainty, making room for someone else to make a run.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.