2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In New Jersey

NEW JERSEY — Conditions seem favorable for NJ to escape major hurricanes this year, according to AccuWeather’s 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast released Wednesday.

Overall, the private weather company said, it looks as if 2023 will be less active than the majority of seasons since 1995 and near the historical average of 11 to 15 named storms. People in Northeast states are the least likely to see devastating hurricanes this season and, as is typical, Florida is the most at risk.

AccuWeather said between four and eight of the forecast storms could reach hurricane-strength, and up to three of them could become major hurricanes — that is, those with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

New Jersey saw its last major hurricane when the remnants of Ida hit the state on Sept. 1, 2021, flooding towns and killing 30 people. Federal officials approved the state’s plans to spend $228 million in disaster relief funds to help cover damages caused by Ida this January. Related article — 1 Year Later, Ida’s Devastation Still Grips New Jersey

The worst hurricane on record to affect the Garden State, of course, is Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Sandy was the first hurricane in decades to make direct landfall in New Jersey, causing 40 deaths and reshaping the landscape of several Shore towns.

On the 10th anniversary of Sandy’s landfall, Patch took a look back at the storm’s impact on NJ and what has changed – or hasn’t. Take a look here.

Weather patterns show that Northeastern states may be spared the worst of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.

“Based on climatology and an evolving El Niño pattern during August through October, the highest chance for direct and significant impacts will be from the Florida Panhandle around the entire state of Florida to the Carolina coast,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist and hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said in a story on the weather company’s website. “There appears to be a lower chance for direct impacts over the western Gulf of Mexico and for the Northeast U.S."

AccuWeather said that among the factors influencing the hurricane seasons is the expected transition to El Niño — which can produce wind shears that deter the development of tropical storm development. Other factors include rising sea surface temperatures in tropical hotbeds of the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, and the strength of the African easterly jet wind pattern, AccuWeather said.

The forecast also considers 30-year averages from 1990 to 2020, with a focus on years with years with similar current and expected weather patterns. The years used for comparison were 2006 and 2009, years with a below-average number of Atlantic storms; and 2012 and 2018, years with a higher-than-normal number of named storms.

Among them were Sandy, a late-season storm that wreaked havoc on mid-Atlantic states in 2012, and, in 2018, Hurricane Florence, which unleashed a historic deluge on the Carolinas; and Hurricane Michael, an intense Category 5 storm that hit the Florida Panhandle with force.

• Related: Here Are The 2023 Hurricane And Tropical Storm Names

The Atlantic hurricane season starts in about two months, but AccuWeather noted that the curveballs thrown in 2022 are a reminder of the importance up and down the coast to prepare for anything. Despite a moderate to strong La Nina that was foreboding of a much stormier season, 2022 was much calmer than 2021 and 2020, both La Nina years.

“Even if this season were to turn out to be less active than normal, abundant warm water could lead to the development of a couple of very strong hurricanes, as we saw with Ian,” Kottlowski said.

“Anyone living near or at the coast must have a hurricane plan in place to deal with what could be a life-threatening or very damaging hurricane,” he said. “Now is the time to create or update your plan.”

Patch’s national desk contributed to this report.