NJ Weather: Soaking Rains, Flooding In Thursday Forecast

NEW JERSEY — Flooding will continue to be a major concern in New Jersey, as an “atmospheric traffic jam” is forecast to bring a stretch of stormy days and further swell lakes and rivers around the state.

Parts of the Garden State have already experienced flooding this week as slow-moving storms dumped several inches of rain. Heavy rainfall will begin again Thursday and could last until next Tuesday in the region, according to extended forecasts from Accuweather.com and the National Weather Service.

"The combination of lift, moisture, and instability will lead to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday,” said the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly. “There is some potential for the storms to become severe; however, that will be a function of timing.”

The main threat will be flooding, as storms that develop “have the potential to produce heavy rainfall” according to forecasters.

“Given the amount of rain over the last week or so, soil moistures are running fairly high thus the potential for flooding will be a concern,” said the NWS.

Thursday will see temperatures in the mid-90s and high humidity, before storms are forecast to start moving eastward in the late afternoon and evening.

“Through Thursday evening, the showers should slowly track towards the coast,” NWS forecasters added. More rain will pass through the region Friday, so “the concern for flooding increases though Friday morning.”

Accuweather said the aforementioned “traffic jam” is a large storm that will “meander near” the shores of Canada’s Hudson Bay into next week. Disturbances in the jet stream will “spin around the storm, like spokes in a giant wheel,” gathering showers and thunderstorms over the Midwestern states before pivoting into the Northeast.

“As these disturbances approach the Northeast, they will accumulate moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as well as the warm waters of the nearby Atlantic,” Accuweather forecasters said.

The rainfall will not be continuous, but “when it does rain, it may pour for several hours and deposit several inches of water during that time” according to Accuweather. “Rainfall of this intensity is more than enough to overwhelm storm drains and lead to rapid rises along small streams.”

National Weather Service forecasters also said that the region will see scattered showers until next week.

“It doesn't currently appear to be a washout on any specific day; however, nothing looks dry either,” said forecasters.

Here is the extended forecast around New Jersey, from the National Weather Service:

North Jersey

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. West wind around 7 mph.

Wednesday night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind, becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind, 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind, 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Central Jersey

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. West wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. West wind around 5 mph, becoming south after midnight.

Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South wind, 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

Thursday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

South Jersey

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 93. West wind, 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 100. South wind, 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Check back with Patch for an updated timeline on the storm front moving in.