Will We See Snow This Winter? Forecasters Explain NJ 'Snow Drought'

NEW JERSEY — Fans of snowfall continue to wait for New Jersey's winter to offer pleasant memories, but forecasters don't see much changing soon. The Garden State is in the midst of a historic snow drought, with no end in sight for the immediate future.

New Jersey can expect primarily rain in the next two rounds of storms, which will hit Thursday and then Sunday into Monday, weather officials said. (View the forecast below.)

It's been nearly a year since "measurable" snow — 0.1 inches or more — has hit parts of New Jersey, according to the National Weather Service. Lengthy periods without accumulation constitute a "snow drought," which can harm water supplies and ecosystems.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that snow droughts will occur more frequently amid climate change.

During winter, snow that accumulates on the ground and remains frozen acts as "snowpack," which typically acts as a natural reservoir to provide water during the summer months, the NOAA says. A snow drought reduces the amount of snowpack that can get released upon melting. This hurts streamflow and soil moisture, which can impact water supplies, fisheries, vegetation, wildfire and wildlife.

New Jersey endured a drought last summer, with a blistering, dryer-than-usual season. The state's drought watch lasted from Aug. 9 to Dec. 27, with New Jersey avoiding what could have been its first state-mandated water-use restrictions 2003. Related article: Drought Watch: NJ Asks Residents And Businesses To Conserve Water

Newark is in one of its longest recorded stretches without measurable snow, last reaching the mark Feb. 14 (337 days ago). The city's record is 661 straight days (Feb. 24, 1972, to Dec. 15, 1973).

Atlantic City, meanwhile, has gone 352 days without an inch of snow, last hitting the mark Jan. 30, with the record totaling 715 days (Feb. 24, 1972, to Feb. 2, 1974).

From Oct. 1-Jan. 17, New York City and Philadelphia historically average 6.8 and 4.6 inches of snow, respectively. So far this winter, both major cities have only seen a trace, according to AccuWeather. The Big Apple has gone 314 straight days without accumulating snow, approaching of record of 332 days from a stretch that ended Dec. 15, 2020.

Rain In Forecast, Warmer Conditions Persisting

While much of the Northeast can expect snow later this week, the winter storm is unlikely to end New Jersey's snow drought, according to forecasters. The National Weather Service predicts periods of rain Thursday before a breezy, partly sunny Friday.

Another storm from Sunday to Monday will primarily lead to rainfall in the state, according to AccuWeather.

"New York City and areas farther south along I-95 will have to wait until later this month or perhaps later this winter for a round of snow," AccuWeather says.

Conditions could become more favorable for snow toward the end of January. The federal Climate Prediction Center expects a 50-60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures in the region for much of next week. However, officials predict "near-normal" temperatures from Jan. 25-31.

Here's the National Weather Service's latest North Jersey forecast:

• Thursday: Rain, mainly after 7 a.m. High near 43. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.
• Thursday night: Rain likely, mainly before 1 a.m. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly before 1 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
• Friday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
• Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
• Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
• Sunday: A 40 percent chance of rain after 1 p.m. Cloudy, with a high near 47.
• Sunday night: Rain likely, mainly before 1 a.m. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Monday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy.

Here's the agency's latest South Jersey forecast:

• Thursday: Rain, mainly after 8 a.m. High near 51. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Thursday night: Rain likely before 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph.
• Friday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.
• Saturday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
• Sunday: A chance of rain after 1 p.m. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
• Sunday night: Rain likely, mainly before 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Breezy.