Damaging Winds, Flooding Possible During Severe Storms In NJ Monday: See Timing

NEW JERSEY — Severe weather looms again Monday in the Garden State, with damaging winds and flooding as the main threats when storms arrive in the evening, said weather experts.

AccuWeather said a number of cities from the Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast are at risk of heavy rain, lightning, and damaging wind gusts between 60 and 70 miles per hour, beginning Monday evening. An isolated tornado could also form during severe thunderstorms, according to AccuWeather and the National Weather Service.

Forecasters predict that thunderstorms will move into the region at about 6 p.m. Monday, and last until around 4 a.m. Tuesday. Widespread rainfall may bring more than 2 inches of rain to some areas of New Jersey, the National Weather Service said in an updated forecast.

Weather in New Jersey on Monday will be “very warm but mostly dry” until storms arrive, forecasters added. Humidity could ramp up into the afternoon, as well.

“Much more active weather arrives tonight into Tuesday, with the risk of flooding and damaging winds being paramount,” said the NWS office in Mount Holly.

Along with possible wind damage, forecasters said the slow-moving frontal boundary of the storm could dump excessive amounts of rain on some communities.

"The very tricky part is there is quite a bit of uncertainty of exactly how quickly this front will move and how far north it will end up and, therefore, who will see the heaviest amount of rain and greatest risk for both flash flooding and severe thunderstorms," NWS forecasters said in a Monday afternoon update.

All 21 New Jersey counties are under a hazardous weather outlook as of Monday afternoon, per the NWS. And, all counties except Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland are under a flood watch from 8 p.m. Monday until 6 a.m. Tuesday.

Communities including Seaside Heights, Trenton, Atlantic City, Cape May, Vineland, Camden, and Moorestown are at a “slight” chance of severe weather for Monday evening, meaning that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in isolated areas, according to the National Weather Service.

And, there is an elevated risk for excessive rainfall in much of the Garden State, the NWS added. Communities including Cape May, Atlantic City, and some southern Ocean and Burlington County towns are at a limited risk for excessive rainfall.

This stormy pattern could continue Tuesday in parts of New Jersey, though the risk of tornadoes should be higher Monday, according to AccuWeather meteorologist La Troy Thornton.

"Monday should present a higher tornado threat as opposed to Tuesday because of stronger turning of the winds with height or shear," explained Thornton. “This phenomenon allows for the columns of rising air that build thunderstorms, called updrafts, to rotate, and this rotation can lead to tornadoes if it can be maximized and sustained.”

During a series of storms last week, the National Weather Service confirmed that three more tornadoes formed in the Garden State (one on Monday in Hunterdon County, and two on Thursday in Burlington and Gloucester counties). That brings this year's total to 13 confirmed tornadoes.

The year with the most recorded tornadoes in New Jersey history is 1989, when 18 tornadoes were recorded, according to data from the Rutgers University Extension.

Here is a look at Monday’s forecast around New Jersey, according to the National Weather Service:

North Jersey

Monday:
Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Monday night:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 70. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Central Jersey

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

South Jersey

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 73. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.