Why Ocean County Hasn't Determined Coronavirus 'Recovery' Numbers

OCEAN COUNTY, NJ — It's a question news media and officials receive frequently: what are the coronavirus recovery numbers?

The Ocean County Health Department said in April that officials were awaiting guidance from the New Jersey Department of Health for the definition of "recovered" before reporting the data.

The OCHD still might provide that data set down the road, according to Brian Lippai, the department's public information officer. But currently the OCHD prioritizes contact tracing in its public-health response to COVID-19.

Defining Recovery

The OCHD makes several data points public. The department's main "case totals" page features the county's case totals and demographic data. The OCHD also began releasing a death count by county in April, which not all New Jersey counties have done. Another OCHD page features statistics such as age and gender demographics.

The state dashboard provides daily updates on new positives, total cases, confirmed deaths and probable deaths. Read more: NJ Now Reporting 'Probable' Coronavirus Death Toll

Case totals involve positive tests, which the confirmed death total also reflects. "Probable" deaths indicate victims for whom testing was never performed even though they had underlying symptoms of the illness, according to Governor Phil Murphy.

"Recovery" numbers have been trickier for health officials. The Center for Disease Control features guidance for discontinuing isolation but doesn't report recovery data at a national level.

Texas's coronavirus dashboard features estimated recoveries, with an important caveat. The numbers are based on assumptions about hospitalizations and recovery times, and they can change as more information becomes available.

"It’s just not an easy number to capture," Lippai said, "partly without a consistent definition and the uniquely specific data gathering process. And we’ve provided other data that we feel is significant."

Patients who recover from COVID-19 can also retest positive for the virus, even after a negative test, according to Becker's Hospital Review. South Korea's CDC, which conducted the cited study, says patients who retest positive after recovery aren't infectious and can't transmit the virus. But it wouldn't be correct to consider them recovered.

Some New Jersey counties post data indicating a patient has been cleared. Atlantic County has cleared 1,778 people as recovered in its 3,147 total cases. Out of 847 reported cases, Cape May County officials have reported 658 people "off quarantine."

"I’ve have seen some of the smaller counties ... offer some type of recovery numbers," Lippai said, "but with the much higher volume of cases we have in Ocean County that’s a data set we may provide down the road."

Contact Tracing

Meanwhile, the OCHD has increased its attention toward contact tracing. The OCHD has been in the process of expanding their social distancing and disease investigation unit to almost 70 employees.

"The NJDOH has been supporting a big push for counties to step up contact tracing capabilities, and we’ve been closing in on a 100% of COVID-19 positive cases investigated," Lippai said.

Murphy announced June 10 that the state expects to hire as many as 4,000 contact tracers. Read more: Gov. Murphy's NJ Contact Tracing Plan For Containing Coronavirus

The OCHD was one of the first New Jersey counties to implement a Contact Tracing/Disease Investigation Institute. County officials also recently expanded testing to asymptomatic patients at its drive-thru site at Ocean County College.

Although recovery totals aren't available, officials say the county is on the right track.

“The next task at hand is encouraging people to get tested and to do their part by wearing masks and adhering to all social distancing guidelines,” said Patty High, the OCHD's assistant public health coordinator. “The numbers are currently trending the right way, but we still have a long road ahead of us. It’s way too soon to get complacent.”

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