How The Abortion Debate May Affect 2022 NJ Congressional Races

NEW JERSEY — In the days since the U.S. Supreme Court formally released its decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and put decision-making on abortion in the hands of the states, the future of abortion and reproductive freedom has been a heated debate across the country.

But will the energy generated by that debate affect the midterm elections? In New Jersey, it appears to be unlikely.

The court's 6-3 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which upended the landmark 1973 decision and a subsequent case on fetal viability, Planned Parenthood v. Casey, set in motion a patchwork of state laws across the country and sparked debates about how and if the federal government should respond.

There have been repeated calls for national legislation to codify abortion access protections, but support in the U.S. Senate has been lacking. On Friday, President Joe Biden signed an executive order that provides protections for access to contraception, medication abortion and emergency medical care for women who are pregnant or suffering pregnancy loss, along with additional privacy safeguards, but those who support reproductive freedom want more protections are hoping for changes in the House and Senate that favor access.

That sentiment is reflected in national polls, where 6 in 10 Americans disagreed with the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe, according to a Monmouth University poll. Just 10 percent say abortion should be illegal in all cases, according to the poll.

Other concerns, however, are weighing on Americans. Patrick Murray, who heads the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told NJ Spotlight that public interest in the abortion debate was being quickly overshadowed by inflation and financial pressures.

Congressional campaigns in some states may be fueled by the abortion debate. In New Jersey, abortion is likely to help candidates raise funds, but Murray told NJ Spotlight he believes it will be unlikely to be a key vote-swaying issue in November in New Jersey.

Part of that is because New Jersey has a law in place to protect women’s access to reproductive health care. A law protecting women from other states who seek abortions in New Jersey was signed by Gov. Phil Murphy on July 1.

The other reason abortion rights are likely to have little effect on the House races in New Jersey is because the state leans heavily toward the Democrats; 10 of the state’s 12 House seats currently are held by Democrats. The two that are not — Rep. Chris Smith in the 4th District and Rep. Jeff Van Drew in the 2nd District — are in areas that lean more heavily Republican.

Smith, who is seeking his 21st term in office, has been widely popular over his more than 40 years in the House. His popularity among Republicans was solid enough to easily fend off a challenge in the Republican primary by a Trump-aligned candidate who had campaign support from former Trump staffers Roger Stone and Michael Flynn.

He has long been an ardent abortion opponent, a position that resonates with the strongly conservative constituency in what will be the 4th District starting in January.

"The hope and moral imperative to protect innocent children's lives from extermination couldn't come a moment too soon," Smith said when the Supreme Court decision was announced.
"There is nothing humane, compassionate or benign about abortion. Abortion is not health care, unless one construes the precious life of an unborn child to be analogous to a tumor to be excised or a disease to be vanquished."

Matt Jenkins, a Democrat who was born and raised in Toms River and now lives in Colts Neck, is hoping the court’s decision and Smith's vocal support of a full federal abortion ban will spur Democrats and unaffiliated voters to support him in his attempt to win the 4th District seat.

"This decision stems from a decades-long strategy to strip women of access to reproductive health care and autonomy. It's a direct attack on women and families," Jenkins said in response to the court decision. "For over 40 years, Chris Smith has had one goal – roll back protections for women."

Whether Jenkins’ support for abortion access will boost his chances is unclear, as the congressional redistricting put even more Republicans in the 4th District.

In the 2nd District, Van Drew, who switched to the Republican party from the Democratic party in 2019, won a close election in 2020, defeating his Democratic challenger by 21,000 votes. With redistricting, the 2nd District picked up additional Republican voters in Southern Ocean County.

Van Drew issued a statement saying the Supreme Court "made the right decision to return this issue to the states."

His challenger, Tim Alexander, said the ruling "by an extremist faction of justices is unconscionable." Alexander also criticized Van Drew, saying his voting record had always supported reproductive freedom for women.

Among the House seats currently held by Democrats, Republicans already face an uphill battle in most cases and leaning into the abortion ban is unlikely to sway sufficient votes to them. Some of the Republican challengers support abortion access with some limits, which mirrors national polling.

In the 1st District, incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross is facing a repeat challenge from Republican Claire Gustafson, whom he defeated by nearly 100,000 in the 2020 election.

In the 3rd District, Democrat Andy Kim is anticipated to have a somewhat less stressful election, as redistricting increased the Democratic base. He is facing Republican Robert Healey Jr., who says he supports legal access to abortion with some limitations.

In the 5th District, Democrat Josh Gottheimer is being challenged by Republican Frank Pallotta, whom he defeated in 2020 by 30,000 votes. Pallotta spoke in support of the Supreme Court decision, but the district is seen as likely to remain in Democratic hands by three political reports, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

In the 6th District, Democrat Frank Pallone Jr. has been the choice in the solidly Democratic district for more than 20 years. Republican Susan Kiley, who has served on the Monmouth County Board of Commissioners, faces an uphill battle. Pallone won the district by 70,000 votes in 2020.

In the 7th District, Democrat Tom Malinowski is being challenged by Republican Tom Kean, son of the former New Jersey governor. Malinowski has been seen as vulnerable in 2022 because of the state’s redistricting, which changed the district where he eked out victory in 2020. Some believe the abortion rights issue could make the difference; an InsiderNJ report said Kean supports legal abortion access, but Malinowski has labeled Kean as being fully anti-abortion.

In the 8th District, Democrat Robert Menendez Jr. is running against Republican Marcos Arroyo; neither has served in the House. Albio Sires, who is retiring at the end of 2022, won the solidly Democratic district by more than 100,000 votes in 2020

In the 9th District, Democrat Bill Pascrell is seeking re-election to his 13th term, and is facing a challenge from Republican Billy Prempeh. Pascrell beat Prempeh by more than 100,000 votes in 2020.

In the 10th District, Democrat Donald Payne Jr. is being challenged by Republican David Pinckney. Payne defeated his Republican challenger in 2020 by more than 200,000 votes.

In the 11th District, Democrat Mikie Sherrill had a close race in defeating her Republican challenger in 2020, and is anticipating a strong challenge in 2022 from Republican Paul DeGroot. Sherill has called the Republican challengers “extremist.” DeGroot, on his campaign website, has not taken a specific position on abortion, but says he supports the U.S. Constitution as the Founding Fathers wrote it.

In the 12th District, Democrat Bonnie Watson Coleman is being challenged by Republican Darius Mayfield. Watson Coleman won the 12th District handily in 2020, by just shy of 100,000 votes.