Race For Jim Whelan's Senate Seat A Dead Heat, Stockton Poll Finds

The state Senate race for the late Sen. Jim Whelan’s seat in the Second Legislative District is a dead heat, according to a Stockton University Poll released on Friday.

Democrat Colin Bell, who was appointed to Whelan’s seat earlier this month, has 46.5 percent of the vote among 521 likely voters. Republican Chris Brown has 46.2 percent of the vote with less than six weeks to go before the Nov. 7 general election. The totals include poll respondents leaning toward one candidate or the other. Five percent are undecided, with 2 percent supporting an independent candidate or refusing to name a choice.

Brown and Bell will engage in a debate in the Campus Center Theatre on the Stockton University campus on Wednesday night, Oct. 25, 6 p.m.

Despite holding the seat, Bell remains unfamiliar to 58 percent of LD2 voters, while 32 percent have a favorable opinion of him. On the other hand, 51 percent of respondents hold a favorable opinion of Brown, while 39 percent are not familiar or uncertain about their feelings for him.

The Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy interviewed 521 likely voters in the 2nd District Sept. 23-28, 2017. Interviewers working from the Stockton University campus called landline and cell telephones. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.

“The Second Legislative District is seen as one of the most competitive districts in the state of New Jersey, and the Senate race is living up to that billing,” Hughes Center Executive Director Sharon Schulman said.

John Froonjian, who manages the Stockton Polling Institute, said that Brown is showing more strength in the district than the rest of the Republican ticket. In the legislative district’s state assembly race, the Democratic team led by incumbent Vince Mazzeo is ahead of the Republican and independent candidates.

Including voters leaning one way or another, Mazzeo leads with 34 percent, followed by Democrat John Armato at 25 percent. Republican Vince Sera receives 17 percent, followed by Republican Brenda Taube, at 16 percent. Two independent candidates, Heather Gordon and Mico Lucide of the Green Party, both have slightly more than 2 percent each, with about 5 percent undecided.

Mazzeo, with a 53 percent favorable rating, is the only candidate with significant name recognition in the district, according to the poll. Only 35 percent are unfamiliar with the incumbent candidate. Running mate Armato is unfamiliar to 62 percent. Republicans Sera and Taube are unfamiliar to at least 75 percent.
Other poll highlights include:

• In LD2, Democrat Phil Murphy leads Republican Kim Guadagno for governor 53 percent to 31 percent.
• Property taxes (23 percent) and taxes in general (17 percent) top voters’ most important issue in the state elections.
• Asked for their feelings about the state takeover of Atlantic City government, 44 percent agree that they may not like the takeover but think it was necessary. Thirty-six percent fully oppose the takeover, while 11 percent support it.
• President Donald Trump’s job performance rating (30 percent positive) tops Governor Chris Christie’s (12 percent) within the legislative district. An endorsement from either official would not carry much weight, Schulman said, with half or more saying it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate.
• In a district that fronts the ocean and includes pinelands territory, 81 percent support a proposed constitutional amendment dedicating settlements of pollution lawsuits toward environmental cleanup and protection. Thirty-nine percent say the state spends too little on environmental protection, while 26 says it spends the right amount and 13 percent think too much is spent. One in five are unsure.
• A small majority of 53 percent support a bond question to borrow $125 million for library construction and repairs. Forty-two percent oppose it.

See full poll results at https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/polling-results-2017.html.