Polls Show Nail-Biting US Senate Race In New Jersey

The Battle of the Bobs is on, and it may prove to be a tougher fight than anyone in New Jersey thought.

Earlier this week, a Stockton University poll of voters in the 2018 U.S. Senate race revealed a “statistical dead heat” between incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez over his Republican challenger Bob Hugin, with Menendez leading Hugin by a mere 2 points (45 percent to 43 percent).

Both Menendez and Hugin offered their own interpretations of the results after the poll came out, with the Democrat shrugging off the numbers and the Republican trumpeting them as a sign of coming victory. (See more details below)

Hugin said the Stockton University poll illustrates that "a growing number of Democrats" are publicly endorsing his campaign. But Menendez said the results should be taken with a grain of salt.

"The Stockton Poll historically underestimates Democratic performance... this is no different," Menendez said.

The Oct. 1 poll from Stockton University is just the latest among efforts from other think tanks at Fairleigh Dickinson University, Quinnipiac University and Gravis. There are 2.18 million registered Democrats and 1.27 million registered Republicans in New Jersey, according to recent state election data. There are 2.34 million unaffiliated voters registered statewide.

• See related article: 3 Questions With New Jersey's US Senate Candidates

LIBERTARIAN, GREEN AND ALL SHADES IN BETWEEN

While Menendez and Hugin have gone back and forth about the meaning of the latest polls, some third-party candidates such as Libertarian Murray Sabrin and the Green Party’s Madelyn Hoffman have expressed doubts about the validity of the process itself, claiming that the game is rigged to favor the Republicans and Democrats.

Earlier this week, the Green Party of New Jersey (GPNJ) said that they “took issue” with the latest Stockton University poll, calling it “seriously flawed” because it only mentioned a single third-party candidate by name – Sabrin – and snubbed their own candidate, Madelyn Hoffman.

“In order to be the most useful and accurate, all political polls like this one should name all candidates for the position sought,” the GPNJ stated. “This is not the first poll on the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey that has not named all the candidates in the race. The Quinnipiac poll from Aug. 15 to 20 made exactly the same error. So have all the polls conducted by Gravis, Fairleigh Dickinson and Monmouth University… This practice is unfair both to the candidates and to the voters.”

In September, Sabrin wrote in a letter to the editor that an earlier Stockton University poll on the Senate race was keeping voters in the dark about third-party and independent challengers.

"The mainstream media have excluded others and me when they report on the U.S. Senate race,” Sabrin charged. “In effect, they are giving the two-party duopoly an in-kind contribution worth hundreds of thousands of dollars."

• See related article: Libertarians Standing Tall As Largest Third-Party In New Jersey

Check out five recent poll results for the 2018 U.S. Senate race in New Jersey below.

FAIRLEIGH DICKENSON UNIVERSITY POLL

RESULTS – Fairleigh Dickinson University wrote on Oct. 3 that Menendez was locked in “a fight incumbents are unaccustomed to experiencing.” Among registered voters, Menendez topped Hugin 37 to 32%; among likely voters, the spread increased to six points (43 to 37%). Almost a third (29%) of registered voters said they were undecided. (Learn more about the poll here)

STOCKTON UNIVERSITY POLL

RESULTS – A poll from Stockton University released on Oct. 1 found Menendez leading Hugin by 2 points at 45 percent to 43 percent: “a statistical dead heat.” Hugin was the favorite of independent voters by a 4 to 3 margin. Murray Sabrin pulled 3 percent, while other candidates and undecided voters totaled 8 percent (Learn more about the poll here)

• Menendez: “The Stockton Poll historically underestimates Democratic performance; this is no different. At the same time in the race in 2016 and 2014, they undercut Hillary Clinton's statewide performance by nine points and Cory Booker’s by seven, respectively, as each won by double-digit margins. In 2012, Stockton had Senator Menendez with 52%, only to wind up with 59% en route to a 20-point victory.”
• Hugin: “Today’s poll is no surprise. Since launching my campaign, I’ve made over 400 campaign stops and met thousands of voters throughout the state. Whether you're a Democrat, Republican, or Independent, voters want a senator who will put New Jersey first and represent them with honor and integrity. That's why a growing number of Democrats are publicly endorsing my campaign.”

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL

RESULTS - As of Aug. 22, Menendez led Hugin by a 43 to 37 percent margin. Menendez's 6-point lead shrunk from a 49 to 32 percent margin reported during a separate poll on March 13. (Learn more about the poll here)

• Hugin Communications Director Megan Piwowar – “This poll confirms why Bob Menendez started his dishonest negative attacks before Labor Day — he’s running scared and he should be. New Jersey voters are sick and tired of Menendez and his numbers are tanking.”
• NJ Democratic Party Chair John Currie – “Bob Hugin just hit his high-water mark in this election. After spending $10 million on dishonest attack ads against Senator Menendez, he's no closer to winning than any other recent Republican Senate candidate.”

GRAVIS POLL (JULY 16)

RESULTS – A poll conducted from July 6 to 10 put Menendez at 43 percent and Hugin at 41 percent when voters were asked to choose between the two. About 16 percent of potential voters were “uncertain.” (Learn more about the poll here)

• Sabrin - After an initial Gravis poll was released in July, Sabrin’s campaign paid for a second poll in August, which had different results. According to a campaign news release: “A new scientific poll conducted by Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, shows that 16% of voters in New Jersey who know of Murray Sabrin will vote for him. The results of the poll showed that once voters were informed of Sabrin's positions, he quickly rose to be within striking distance of Menendez and Hugin.”

MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY POLL

RESULTS – On April 12, a Monmouth University poll said that Menendez “holds a sizable advantage” over Hugin. Among all registered voters in New Jersey, a majority of 53% said they would vote for Menendez and 32% would choose Hugin if the election for senator was that day. (Learn more about the poll here)

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