Independent Voters In NJ Could Be ‘Game Changer’ For Democrats, Pollsters Say

NEW JERSEY — Independent voters in New Jersey could have a game-changing impact on the 2025 primary election, a new poll says – but only if they decide to tune in before it’s too late.

Democratic and Republican candidates will face off for their party’s nomination on June 10. Early voting will take place between June 3 and June 8.

The voter registration deadline is May 20. Learn more about voting in New Jersey here.

This year’s election includes a hotly contested race to replace Gov. Phil Murphy, who is term-limited and can’t run again. The winners of the primary will advance to the general election on Nov. 4, which will also include any third-party or independent candidates.

There were 2,449,526 registered Democrats, 1,621,669 Republicans and 75,113 voters registered with a third-party in New Jersey as of May 1, according to data from the state division of elections.

The Garden State also has a whopping 2,418,977 unaffiliated voters who could turn the tide for the Democratic or Republican candidates.

“Since independents are able to change their registration to vote in the primaries or declare their party at the polls in-person, they can still play an important role in the upcoming election,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

“The reality is, if more independents were aware and declared a party, it could potentially change the game for many of the primary candidates – particularly on the Democratic side,” Koning said.

A recent Rutgers-Eagleton poll found that former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli was leading the pack in the Republican Party race at 42 percent. Former radio host Bill Spadea came in second at 12 precent. Four percent of Republicans said they prefer state Sen. Jon Bramnick, 3 percent chose Justin Barbera, and none chose Mario Kranjac.

Ciattarelli picked up a big endorsement from President Donald Trump this week, which gives him a major boost headed into the primary election. Read More: Trump Endorses Republican Candidate In NJ Governor Race

Meanwhile, several of the Democratic candidates were neck-and-neck, pollsters found:

“Seventeen percent of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents prefer U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, followed by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop at 12% – a difference within the margin of error. Next is New Jersey Education Association president Sean Spiller at 10%, followed by U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka each at 9%, and then former state Senate President Steve Sweeney at 7%.”

Although the stakes are high – as of April – many voters in New Jersey remained unaware that an election is taking place on June 10, the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll found.

“Any election not held during a presidential year or not in November has historically seen lower turnout due to less awareness, less interest and less engagement,” Koning said.

“New Jersey’s gubernatorial primaries are the perfect storm for this – typically held in June and never during a presidential year – with turnout in past primaries in the single digits to low double digits,” Koning added.

According to Rutgers-Eagleton researchers:

“When asked to state – to the best of their knowledge – when the next election in New Jersey will take place, 4% of participants of an early April poll say June 10; another 20% say it will take place some point in June, including individuals who got the right month but wrong date. Thirty-five percent say November, 1% mention an upcoming special election in their area and 24% say ‘other.’ Sixteen percent are unsure of when the next election will take place.”

Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, said “disadvantaged voting groups” often go unheard in primaries because they are less aware that they are taking place – and therefore less likely to vote.

“Some of these groups are key to candidates’ platforms and potential victories, but those who typically vote in primaries are less representation of the population as a whole and more likely to be affluent and well-educated,” Roman said.

• See Related: Ineligible Voter Purge Planned In NJ, Trump-Appointed Official Says
• See Related: Republicans Gain On Democrats As New Jersey Primary Election Creeps Closer

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