As Bad As Hurricane Matthew Could Have Been For NJ, Future Storms Likely To Be Worse

New Jersey escaped a doozy when Hurricane Matthew stayed to the south. But future storms that could strike New Jersey are likelier to be even stronger than Matthew — and even more desructive than Super Storm Sandy, experts say.

Whether the number of storms increases is unknown because it’s unclear if the conditions that trigger them will increase or decrease, David A. Robinson, a Rutgers University geography professor who has served as the New Jersey state climatologist for 25 years, said in a news release.

But storm precipitation and wind speeds should increase with future storms, along with freshwater and storm surge flooding and wind damage, according to Robinson. And more intense tropical storms may make it up to the New Jersey coastline and beyond, fueled by warmer ocean waters.

“You still need a trigger but we’re primed for more significant storms that will produce heavy rainfall and heavy snowfall,” he said in the Rutgers news release.

The storms are also becoming more unpredictable. New Jersey was initially in Hurricane Matthew's possible path, but those predictions quickly changed. Now the storm is hugging the Florida coast, and it's not expected to move past North Carolina.

Hurricane Nicole, a newer system gathering strength in the Atlantic, is currently no threat, but some forecasting models leave open the possibility it could point toward New Jersey. Some forecasters say it could merge with elements of Matthew and produce nor'easters that could impact the Northeast.

Robinson said that climate warming and the sea level rising are largely to blame — and the warming of New Jersey’s climate is expected to continue - even as some continue to express doubt about scientists' warnings.

Robinson says the atmosphere will hold nearly 4 percent more moisture for every 1 degree rise in temperature. The increased warmth and moisture will lead to a more energetic atmosphere, and warmer sea surface temperatures will add fuel to the fire, he said in the release.

Meanwhile, rising development in coastal areas has put more people and property in danger.

In that regard, Robinson and Steven G. Decker, an instructor in Rutgers’ meteorology undergraduate program, say Sandy in 2012 was not the worst possible storm in the region, and they warn that as the sea rises, much weaker storms than Sandy may pack big punches.

Since the early 1800s, several storms have posed greater threats in the mid-Atlantic region than Sandy. They include the 1821 hurricane that made landfall in Cape May, with sustained winds that may have topped 100 mph; the deadly 1938 hurricane that slammed into Long Island and southeastern New England; and the 1944 hurricane that cruised just off the New Jersey coast but dumped heavy rain, brought strong winds and spawned a significant surge, according to Robinson and Decker.

Sandy’s extreme storm surge and strong winds caused most of its damage. But a slower storm could cause far more coastal and inland flooding damage than Sandy, and future storms could unleash stronger winds along the coast and inland, researchers say.

Last month, Hurricane Hermine threatened to cause major coastal flooding in New Jersey and other states but moved farther east than computer models initially predicted, sparing the region its full fury.

Anthony J. Broccoli, a meteorologist and professor who chairs Rutgers’ environmental sciences department, said the consensus, based on computer simulations, is that the strongest hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin will get stronger by the end of this century.

“A warmer climate could make it easier for storms to maintain their intensity as they move out of the tropics,” he said. “So even if there aren’t more storms, there could be more storms that survive at a given intensity level and reach our latitude. Storm tracks also could change, and that could lessen or increase the threat to New Jersey.”

If damaging storms become more frequent, Robinson said, retreat from areas with mounting repetitive losses will become a topic of discussion

“But we have such an investment along the Jersey coast that it’s going to be one of the last places where people will back off,” he said. “Economically, it’s an enormous part of the state, so you’re going to see battles to deal with Mother Nature well into the future.”

Reporting by Tom Davis and Todd Bates, Rutgers spokesman and former Asbury Park Press reporter

Photo: National Hurricane Center