2018 Hurricane Forecasts, Potential NJ Impact Released

Two hurricane forecasts released this week say that the Atlantic Coast – and potentially New Jersey – could have a damaging storm season. The very active 2017 season was considered at least partially responsible for some of the 34 water-related deaths in New Jersey last year.

A 2018 Atlantic forecast released Thursday from Colorado State University says the number of named storms and hurricanes will likely be above historical averages.

AccuWeather forecasters, meanwhile, are predicting a near normal to slightly above-normal year with between 12 to 15 tropical storms.

Of those storms, 6 to 8 are forecast to become hurricanes and 3 to 5 are forecast to become major hurricanes.

"Last year we had 17 tropical storms. This year may not be quite as active, but still probably normal to slightly above normal," AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

2017 was a devastating hurricane season with at least four deadly named systems that made landfall, including Harvey and Irma. Storms such as Hurricanes Jose and Maria did not directly hit New Jersey. But these storms and others produced rip currents were considered responsible for a more-dangerous-than-usual beach season.

At least 34 people died in water-related deaths in New Jersey from May through September. Read more: 34 Die In New Jersey Water Deaths Since May As Trend Continues.

The week of July 30 through August 5 was particularly troublesome. Read more here: 9 Die In N.J. Waters This Week As Mysterious, Deadly Summer Continues

In September, Hurricane Maria didn't directly hit the shore but it had a dangerous and even deadly impact on New Jersey.

At least three people were killed, and at least 150 people were rescued during one weekend in the treacherous Atlantic Ocean waters. Indeed, rip currents posed a serious threat as the storm churned over the Atlantic Ocean. Read more: 3 Dead, At Least 150 Rescued Off New Jersey As Hurricane Maria Impacts Shore

The CSU study, released online and by The Weather Channel, says seven hurricanes – three of them major – and 14 named storms are expected this season along the Atlantic Coast, according to the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project.

This study says the number is above the 30-year average of six hurricanes - two of them major - and 12 named storms. The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.

"We anticipate that the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below average activity," according to the report, adding that the tropical Atlantic has cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold.

"We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above average activity, according to the report, noting that western tropical Atlantic is "anomalously" warm right now.

"As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Hurricanes typically form over warmer water – and usually over tropical oceans, where warm water and air interact to create these storms.

Last year, 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes were reported in the United States – ranking it with 1936 as the fifth-most active season since records began in 1851.

AccuWeather says that, similar to last year, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal across most of central-to-southern Atlantic, where more than 85 percent of all tropical storms form.

"Right now, we are in a weakening La Niña pattern, but the climate pattern is expected to go into what's called a neutral pattern, which promotes near-normal wind shear," Kottlowski said an an AccuWeather release.

According to Kottlowski, conditions are ripe for early season development in the Gulf of Mexico due the warm water already in place in that part of the Atlantic basin, according to the release."You want to prepare for the worst case scenario - that's called having a hurricane plan. And the government and local officials do have guidelines on how to create such a plan depending on where you live."

Photo: A beachgoer walks along the water as waves crash in Manasquan, N.J., Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017. Swells are up from recent hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, including Tropical Storm Jose, which could impact New Jersey, according to meteorologists. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)