How Will New Housing Projects Affect Enrollment At Princeton Schools?

PRINCETON, NJ — A number of housing projects are being planned in Princeton, which gives rise to the question – how will the school district handle new students?

On Tuesday, the Board of Education received a demographic update presentation that included enrollment trends and anticipated impacts from new housing projects.

The presentation was made by Michael Zuba, professional planner and Director of Public Education Master Planning for SLAM, and Pat Gallagher. SLAM is a national firm that offers public master planning services for educational institutions.

The hour-long meeting included much information and Patch is presenting some highlights.

The Board began to look at demographics back during the 2017-2018 school year. “Over the past 10 years, total PPS enrollment has increased by 324 students, or 9.5 percent,” Board President Dafna Kendal said. “Our current data will show that our current enrollment including pre-K to 12 is at 3,721.”

The most recent enrollment peak of 3,855 students was in the 2019-2020 school year, followed by two years of decline due to the pandemic, Kendal said.

According to Gallagher, historically Princeton has experienced cyclical growth patterns, where it saw rapid growth followed by periods of stability or contraction. Between 2010 and 2020, Princeton experienced a 7.4 percent increase in population, which was greater than the county and state growth rate.

The planners also tracked birth rates to project kindergarten enrollments. According to the report between 2018 and 2020 births in Princeton averaged 169 annually, compared to an average of 197 annually between 2014 and 2017. This smaller birth cohort will enter kindergarten next year.

Princeton and Mercer County experienced growth in home sales in 2021. But in 2022 home sales trended slightly below pre-pandemic levels.

More recently, Princeton has seen a spike in multi-family permits corresponding with large development projects such as Stanworth, Copperwood, and Avalon Princeton. However, there is a lag between when these units are permitted and when they are occupied. "So, there will be a several-year period between when the permits are issued until they reach peak enrollment," the planner said.

Taking into account upcoming projects and anticipated future housing, the number of students expected at PPS is estimated to be 460 — with 250 of those in elementary schools, around 120 in middle school and about 90 in high school, Gallagher said.

“And this is only from the third-round agreement projects. We know there is going to be a fourth round that will be adding additional units to Princeton which will start in the 2025-35 period. And that has not been added into our analysis,” Gallagher said.

According to the five-year projections in the demographic report, enrollment is expected to peak at 4,154 by the 2027-2028 school year. The projected enrollment numbers reflect a continued expansion of the PPS pre-K program but do not include children who attend pre-K off-site at locations provided by community partners.

In the past three years, the Board has implemented steps to maximize the capacity of existing schools through schedule changes, facilities upgrades, and the addition of additional classrooms at Princeton High School and Princeton Middle School, Kendal told the community.

“Having an updated demographics report that takes into account new housing and post-pandemic enrollment trends provides the board with data needed for long-term planning,” Kendal said.

The Board president suggested there could be "minor redistricting" of new housing projects coupled with educational programming to tackle growing enrollment.

The Board of Education will meet again on Feb 21. to discuss the information presented in the report. The long-term planning committee is expected to discuss the next steps and a special meeting will be held in March to talk about ways to address rising enrollment.

To see the full presentation on the school district's YouTube channel, click here.

The complete presentation can be found here.

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