The class size charts shown in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 CUFSD budget presentations provide the most recent estimates of grades K– 5 enrollment. Based on that data: (1) enrollment for grades 3-5 (intermediate schools) in 2015-16 is projected at 1269, a decrease of 138 students from 2014-15. The number of sections is planned to decrease from 58 to 55 resulting in an average of 23 students per section. (2) there are 1111 students expected for grades K-2 (elementary schools) in 2015-16; this is 30 less than in 2014-15. The planned number of sections remains at 55 for an average of about 20 students per section. The 2013 WBOCES study had predicted 1139 for grades K-2 in 2015-16. So, enrollment in these entry grades is about 5% below the 2013 BOCES study result.
The property tax report for 2014-15 indicated a total enrollment of 6737; but this was based on a “graduated” estimate. An improved estimate would use the data from the class size charts for grades K-5 combined with the 2013 BOCES study estimate for grades 6-12; this results in an estimated total enrollment of 6650 in 2014-15 and 6435 in 2015-16 (total enrollment estimates include special ed students). So, there is a projected decrease in total K-12 enrollment for 2015-16 of 215 students (-3.3%). It is noted that the 6435 total in 2015-16 is below the WBOCES study estimate of 6513.
There is little doubt that CUFSD enrollment is shrinking, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. . This seems to be generally true on L.I. It stands to reason that at some point the budget must follow. The present budget proposal of $183M represents more than $1M per (school) day. Mind-boggling. Can the present BOE with its non-representative 4-trustee group be able to cope with the reality and consequences of a continued decline in school population? Based on their record, that is doubtful.
