The Litmus Test: Countdown To Mets Trading Deadline

Before diving into how 2011 has been treating the Mets (or the way they’ve been treating us fans), we need to dissect the previous years leading up to this that may cause some interesting developments at the trading deadline. 

See, in the last few years, especially when it was evident the Mets needed help, they stood pat at the deadline. Whether that was an indication of the lack of prospects in the minors, a money thing or just general overvaluing the team they had on the field (Alex Cora, anyone?), the fact is, it will be incredibly surprising if they keep things at the status quo.

Currently, Jose Reyes looks to be returning from the Disabled List at any moment, and David Wright is rehabbing in Florida.  Ike Davis is still a 50/50 return for this season, and Johan Santana, so-called “ace” of the pitching staff, has not thrown a pitch this season. 

So what does any of this mean for the team?  Basically, there are a few routes.  It’s become clear that the closer that we get to the trading deadline, the chances of Jose Reyes being traded are slim.  This is great news for fans who support him.  It also becomes evident that Carlos Beltran may be a Met Man Walking, giving hints that he would waive his no-trade clause if he could go to a contender. 

General Manager Sandy Alderson has a lot on his plate.  He showed he was the “adult in the room” by making a tough decision to send closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Milwaukee Brewers.  Tough in the sense that (whether Mets fans will agree or disagree with this) the guy known as “K-Rod” is one of the best closers.  The other side to that is the Mets would have been on the hook for paying him $17.5mm if this ugly “Games Finished” option kicked in, which he was certainly on the path to doing so.  For a person who plays one inning at most times, this is too much of a payroll burden to be allocated.

The next moves may be tricky.  Having come back from All-Star Break last Friday, the Mets quickly dropped two-out-of-three to division rivals Philadelphia Phillies.  Since it’s a foregone conclusion that the Mets will be non-factors in the NL East campaign, but there has be careful consideration with the Wild Card and whether the Mets might be impactful in that.

The Mets have one quick homestand (ending Thursday of this week) and then go on the road, without a day off till August 4.  By that time, Jose Reyes should have returned, and hopefully Wright does as well.  The next few days at home might be a kicker, but the Mets have been significantly better on the road this year as opposed to home.  They will be facing the Marlins in a one game makeup from May, and the St. Louis Cardinals who are a ½ game back in the NL Central race. 

Deciding on what to do might be tough, but I think regardless of performance these next few weeks on the road, Carlos Beltran is a goner.  It’s tough because I happen to be a Carlos Beltran supporter, but the terms of his contract are onerous in that when he walks, the Mets won’t receive any compensatory picks when he leaves.  There could also be a chance that Mike Pelfrey could be thrown in a deal in the event that Santana returns ahead of schedule. 

The real litmus test will be how the team performs in the upcoming weeks.  Their impact on the road and at home also have to be taken into consideration, given the dimensions at CitiField, there needs to be careful thought as to who would continue to not let the quirks and fences bother them.

Not having players who can play to CitiField’s dimensions would be a problem, and could potentially make a fair-performing team worse.

If they are less than .500 on this homestand, as brief as it may be, this could prove the final straw in “will they or won’t they” trade Beltran for prospects, and perhaps the draw of the Mets being “competitive” as opposed to “going all out for the Wild Card” for 2012.  What we will need to understand that it’s not necessarily a “white flag” but something that should have been done a long time ago to help the team. 

The fact is, they remain under water with several contracts that are expiring this year and that in and of itself may prohibit making big splashy moves.  Some naysayers may suggest that if the Mets are a big market team, they should spend like one, but these folks refuse to look at the last few years and realize this is where they have gotten in trouble. 

It will be interesting to say the least, but the upcoming days, not weeks, will be a true litmus test to see what direction the Mets are taking, not necessarily this year but in the future as well.  The good news is the guesswork will finally be done for us. 

The other part which could go either way is we may see some unpopular moves made.  I consider that also good news, since there has been a need to take away the emotional attachment to some of these players for a long time.