Mamaroneck Schools Forecast Elementary Enrollment Declines

The elementary grades in the Mamaroneck School District are projected to see an overall enrollment decrease over the next three years, according to new data from Superintendent Dr. Robert Shaps and Director of Research Dr. Michael Kollmer.

The two presented the data to the Board of Education this week, and Shaps said the new projections should mean that the school system can meet its space needs for the next few years.

Below is Shaps’ letter to the community explaining the enrollment:

Dear Community Members,

As you may recall, in September I updated you on the District’s upward enrollment trend and identified the potential need for more space in our buildings as one of our top five “System Challenges” that the Board of Education and Administration looked at last summer. This point of discussion was based on a demographic study completed in 2010, which accurately projected enrollment growth for a few years, but then, after that, became less valuable as we experienced an unexpected jump in enrollment over the past couple years.

At Tuesday’s Board meeting, I, along with Dr. Michael Kollmer, the District’s Director of Research, Assessment and Accountability, reported on new enrollment projections we’ve made over the past several months using the Forecast 5 analytics tool looking at the next three years and the Cohort Survival Model, which projects future grade-level enrollment. Updated projections show incoming kindergarten enrollment decreasing over the next three years and overall elementary (K-5) enrollment decreasing steadily over a three-year period. Chatsworth and Murray are expected to experience a slight enrollment increase the next two years, followed by decreased enrollment in 2018-19.

Based on these new enrollment projections -- combined with examining current class size guidelines and conducting a full classroom-by-classroom audit of our instructional space at each of our elementary schools -- I reported that our current K-5 schools configuration should adequately accommodate upcoming enrollment trends. If enrollment expands beyond our new long-range predictions, our planning would include re-assigning programs within and across elementary schools.

My intent moving forward is to increase the effectiveness of our enrollment projections by re-examining our methodology and enrollment annually and keeping the community informed. Additionally, we will continue to work with our municipal partners to assess short and long term impact of local housing development plans.

Wishing you a joyful school break and time spent with your family this holiday season.

Regards,

Dr. Robert I. Shaps
Superintendent of Schools