Poll Shows Concerns About Violence Stemming From Politics

Pipe bombs sent to top Democrats. A massacre at a synagogue. Two dead at a yoga studio. All in a matter of weeks. It's hard to believe that these happened in the United States, but they did. In fact, according to a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, nearly eight in 10 U.S. residents are concerned that violence or acts of terrorism will be the end result of the tone in the nation's capital.

A consensus exists among Americans that the level of civility between elected officials in Washington has worsened since President Donald Trump took office in January 2017.

Yes, there are clear partisan differences, but a plurality of Americans believe the president's conduct is to blame for the political rancor in Washington as well as the onslaught of suspicious packages sent to the president's critics.

The poll found that a majority of Americans consider the president's reaction to these incidents to be irresponsible, and half also characterize the reporting by the media in the same way.

Seventy-nine percent of Americans — including 82 percent of likely voters — are concerned that the lack of civility in the nation's capital will lead to violence. That includes 45 percent who are very concerned and 34 percent who are concerned, according to the poll.

Only 21 percent are either not very concerned — 12 percent — or not concerned at all — 9 percent.

While Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans to be very concerned — 63 percent to 31 percent — a plurality of independents are also very concerned — 46 percent.

As to whether the tone and level of civility between Rs and Ds in Washington have gotten worse since Trump took office, 74 percent of Americans think so.

That is an increase from 67 percent in November 2017.

Among three political factions, there is a consensus: 87 percent of Democrats, 75 percent of independents and 63 percent of Republicans think the political rancor in Washington has gotten worse since the president was inaugurated.

"Americans are aggrieved by the 'us versus them' fisticuffs that dominate Washington," said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

"This dissatisfaction especially spikes among Democrats and independents," he said.

Who's responsible?

A plurality of Americans — 40 percent — including 42 percent of likely voters, think Trump is responsible for the divisive tone in today's politics.

Twenty-nine percent blame the media and 17 percent think congressional Democrats are at fault.

Seven percent consider the congressional Republicans are the culprits.

Little has changed regarding President Trump's job approval.

According to the poll, 41 percent of Americans, including the same proportion of likely voters, approve of the job he is doing in office.

That only 2 points higher that the 39 percent that was reported in the late October NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll.

Fifty-one percent disapprove of Trump's job performance, including 38 percent who strongly do so, while 28 percent of Americans strongly approve of his time in office.

We can't know for sure whether people will turn out to vote Tuesday, but there is enthusiasm for the election, according to the poll.

Among registered voters, 55 percent, including 62 percent of likely voters, said they are very enthusiastic about the election.

That compares with 40 percent who had this view in late October 2010, in the middle of Barack Obama's first term when the Democrats lost their House majority and narrowly kept their Senate majority.

This year's elections are considered to be very important to 76 percent of registered voters, including 82 percent of likely voters. That piece of data could be an indication of what the turnout Tuesday will be.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll was conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 29 by the Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour. The survey reached 924 adults 18 years of age or older.

The margin of error is ±4.2 percent.

For the complete methodology, go here.

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