Jets Week 9 Prediction

In sports, every team’s season has a theme.

Whether it be injuries, good luck, blow outs, or just playing poorly, every squad is defined by something.

For the New York Jets, their theme has been up-and-down play. Odd weeks are wins, even weeks are defeats. And those defeats have not been pretty. Gang Green’s point differential is minus-68 which is fourth-worst in the NFL. Fortunately, they lost last week (getting obliterated by the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium), meaning this Sunday, they have to win. Right?

Wrong.

Last week was an utter embarrassment as the Jets got shellacked 49-9 at the hands of Cincinnati. Geno Smith threw two pick-sixes and the defense allowed five—yes five—touchdown passes. In addition to the plethora of scoring, the Bengals came away with a pair of one hundred yard receivers and out-gained the visitors by 182 yards. It can be said, with conviction, that no group for New York played well. The secondary and passing game were both abysmal; there was zero pressure on Dalton, no running game to speak of, and no adjustments made by Rex Ryan and his coaching staff.

And what does Gang Green get coming off that abominable performance? The New Orleans Saints, a team that is in the top five in scoring defense, scoring offense, and passing offense. To make a long story short, this spells trouble for Rex and Co.

The biggest challenge for the Jets will be containing Drew Brees. One of the most accurate passers in recent memory, Brees will exploit even the slightest of holes in your defense with regularity. After the Bengals debacle, this looks to be a huge advantage for the Saints.

But wait! What if Brees doesn’t have the ball? What if he’s on the sidelines with Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston instead of torching the Jets’ secondary? Well, if that happens, then Gang Green has a real shot to win. And the only way to accomplish that is by Ground and Pound.

Since 2009, with Sean Payton at the helm (Payton was suspended for the 2012 season), the Saints have lost 12 games. In ten of those contests, the Saints were out-rushed, many times by a large margin. What that means is that Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and the offensive line have to have a big game. If not, New York’s chances of winning go out the door. Ivory should be running with more of a purpose in this game anyway because he is going up against his former team.

Along with Ground and Pound, the turnover battle is another key to success for the Jets. Their turnover margin is minus-12, tied for the worst in football with the Giants. Conversely, the Saints are +8 in turnovers, good for third in the league. If Gang Green has any hope of defeating New Orleans, Geno Smith must take care of the football.

Turnovers and running the ball go hand in hand with each other. If the rushing attack is picking up yardage, then Geno won’t have the ball in his hands as much, thereby eliminating chances for the Saints to cause interceptions and fumbles.

This will be the toughest matchup of the season for New York. Outside of running the ball, no other phase of this game favors the home team. However, if they have success on the ground and keep Drew Brees off the field, New York will stay in the contest.

I see the Jets putting up a fight, but ultimately falling short and limping into their bye week at 4-5.

My prediction: Saints- 28   Jets- 17