Thursday & Friday in the Hudson Valley: Just How Hot?

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — Everyone agrees that it's going to be unseasonably warm today and tomorrow. Just how warm — there's the rub.

According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Kyle Elliott, "Temperatures are expected to reach into the 50s F as far north as upstate New York and southern Maine on Thursday, while 60-degree Fahrenheit temperatures push into northern Pennsylvania and southern New York."

But Hudson Valley Weather thinks it'll be warmer than that.

HVW points out the wide difference in predictions between the American (GFS) model and European model forecasting this week's weather — and Bill Potter is betting on the European model, which shows temps 20 to 30 degrees above average.

"Last weekend, the GFS said Saturday would be in the low 40s, and the European called for mid 50s. The Poughkeepsie high temperature on Saturday, was 56°. The European model has been beating the pants off the GFS over the past week, and we see no reason for that to change now," Potter said on Wednesday. "It’s going to be near record warm, regardless of what the GFS model has to say on the issue."

Thursday morning, he predicted we would fall short of a record high. But, he said, "It’s going to be an absolutely gorgeous February day, with a SW wind that will help afternoon temperatures surge into the 60s this afternoon...A very mild night ahead, with overnight lows that will be warmer than the average high this time of year. That sets the stage for another warm Friday, with a southerly wind, helping temperatures surge back into the 60s once again! It’s April in February, Hudson Valley… hopefully you can get out and enjoy some of it."

Finally, here's what the National Weather Service has to say about it:

Morning fog and stratus should gradually lift today. Temperatures across the interior will likely climb into the lower to middle 60s, with 70 degree readings possible across Northeast New Jersey and parts of the NYC metro if breaks of sun materialize. Meanwhile...coastal locations may remain cloudy all days with highs holding in the 50s.

Mild and moist conditions will likely lead to stratus and fog development once again tonight into Friday morning. A nearby front may even bring some showers and drizzle.

Similar conditions to today are once again likely on Friday.

Image: AccuWeather.com