How to Pay Off Nassau's Deficit and Generate Billions

Sounds Crazy, yes? Maybe not…As anyone who knows me or has stumbled across any of my articles knows, revitalizing the Nassau HUB is something of a crusade of mine, if but that I see great opportunity there and a future for my generation and the Nassau of tomorrow if the entire HUB and other industrial and downtown sites across the county are properly revitalized for the 21^st Century.

So naturally people will sometimes ask me questions about it; and a friend recently asked me: “If the greater Nassau Coliseum Site were to be sold to developers at fair market values, how much of a dent would that put in the deficit and could the influx of cash allow for taxes to be lowered?” The question intrigued me, so I did some math…

The first value I needed was the deficit. However Long Island Government, including the messy financial figures isn’t exactly readily available as depicted in this video from the Long Island Index . Well, save that for my article on chasing the snakes out and putting good people back into our elected positions…

So in my research I got several figures. A 300 million dollar figure, presumably from the Suozzi government immediately prior to Mangano’s inauguration; a 133 million dollar figure that Mangano apparently walked into, and a 2011 double verified 176 million dollar figure from Bloomberg and a Patch article.

The lower, more accurate figures ones make my case so much sweeter, but lets do two things; get the average of the three as a handicap against me and in favor of County government (ergo 200 million deficit even) and assume to my credit that the economic situation in Nassau will continue to stagnate so the deficit has a greater chance of increasing…So 200 million in the red lasting into our Coliseum Site sales day of say July 2014

Second value: the fair market of the entire Coliseum Site. Thankfully this was an easier task, thanks to the ‘Assessment Fallout’ from the Suozzi Administration; so thanks Mynassauproperty! There are 9 lots encompassing the coliseum site. Here they are, west to east in Section / Block / Lot:

44 F 351 – Small piece of southwest parking field

44 F 403 – Coliseum and its parking field

44 F 326 – Marriott Hotel stands on it

44 F 401 – Marriott Parking Lot

44 F 402 – Parking Lot south of Marriott

44 F 406 – Apparently James Doolittle Blvd

44 F 405 – The prairie lands

44 F 318 – C and D sub-lots, also prairie lands

Next, I needed 2014 projected Fair Market Value…easy 

44 F 351 $4,554,700.00

44 F 403 $271,536,000.00

44 F 326 $56,057,000.00

44 F 401 $4,260,700.00

44 F 402 $6,573,000.00

44 F 406 $3,938,000.00

44 F 405 $36,074,000.00

44 F 318 $59,016,000.00

And a total value of the Coliseum Site at around 442 Million Dollars, rounded down. BUT STOP! Some will point out that the site needs to be subdivided, roads put in, etc. Very true…So let’s go to my Coliseum City plan. In it, my concept model encompassed 21% surface roads dividing the lots, 34% building footprint and 45% open/plaza space. So since the other two are the lot bounds, let’s deduct not just 21% but 25% to accommodate for additional infrastructure.

That gives us a total of $331,500,000 adjusting for road and infrastructure under the Coliseum City model, perhaps more under the Lighthouse Model.

So, what was that about a 200 million dollar rounded up deficit?!? If the county handles its debt well into 2014 and we’re at say a 150 million dollar figure, the fair market sale of the land puts Nassau into a 180+ million dollar surplus. If the 200 million dollar figure is accurate: a 130+ million dollar surplus; and if Nassau’s in bad shape and again achieves a 300 million dollar deficit: we’re even with an additional 30 million plus to spare. If the budget is balanced: a 400 million dollar plus pure surplus. Bye high taxes.

Sure beats the referendum to take out 400 million dollars in additional debt huh?

But we forgot two things: One, the greater benefits of the site being redeveloped.

In terms of taxes, even at the vastly reduced tax rate proposals of the Coliseum City plan, millions in taxes would still be generated yearly.

In terms of economic development: potential billions over the course of many decades in real estate development, economic growth, industry development, investment-in and employment, preferably mainly in high tech and ‘future tech’ industries such as advanced computers, nanotechnology, AI, robotics and energy for civilian applications.

But the process to properly revitalize the county will of course depend on a lot of policy changes too and the right mindsets having the right opportunities to make it happen. Still, ceteris paribus, the sale of the land would assist Nassau and put the site in position to at least have a chance at proper redevelopment.

So there’s that. A groovy set of calculations that I bet the likes of Charles Wong and the development bunch, Tom Suozzi and even Ed Mangano have made, ordered made or were briefed upon at some point in time.

Now I share them with you. Do you feel that the subdivision into lots and sale of the Nassau Coliseum site to a number of developers for private revitalization into a new downtown/business district is worth it? Does the concept of paying off the county’s debts and getting the 77 acre plus deteriorating site into better hands that don’t need to rely on public money to revitalize makes sense?

Is a referendum to “Subdivide, Sell and Soar” next Election Day a better one than “Publicly Finance, Promote and Pray” on a busy August Monday?