Should The Hudson Valley Be Worried About Hurricane Jose?

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — With the Southeast surveying the damage from Hurricane Irma, eyes now turn toward Hurricane Jose, currently a Category 1 storm as of Tuesday morning with sustained winds of 75 mph. Jose was located a few hundred miles northeast of Turks and Caicos early Tuesday. Should Hudson Valley residents be worried about Jose? No. Not right now, at least.

There are a few forecast models that have Jose making its way up the East Coast next week and approaching the region (most models have it going out to sea), but there's a reason why the National Hurricane Center doesn't forecast a hurricane's path beyond five days out. There's way too much uncertainty to accurately predict where a hurricane is headed seven to 10 days down the road. (For more information on this and other neighborhood stories, subscribe to Patch to receive daily newsletters and breaking news alerts.)

Lee Goldberg, meteorologist for WABC-TV said on Facebook, “Jose needs to be watched closely after he does a loop in the Atlantic. Strong chance it ends up offshore and is just a high surf issue, but the forecast track is a little too close for comfort.”

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That all said, we are in the heart of the hurricane season. Two hurricanes have just devastated parts of the country. So the Hudson Valley should certainly be prepared for a hurricane if one happens to come our way.

Hurricane Jose's complicated path has it performing a loop south of Bermuda early this week.

The potential for a dangerous storm affecting the Bahamas late this week and/or the United States early next week is there, Jeff Masters, the meteorology director at the private forecasting service Weather Underground, says.

But, he cautions, "Until Jose is farther along on its loop, the models are likely to have large errors, and we should not take too much comfort (or indulge in too much angst) over a particular set of model runs."

Hurricane Irma hit Florida with 130 mph winds Sunday, flooding streets, cutting power to millions of homes and leaving at least three people dead. By Monday it had been downgraded to a tropical storm and appeared headed toward Atlanta.

The Hudson Valley forecast from the National Weather Service:

• Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
• Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind.
• Wednesday: Isolated showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the morning.
• Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
• Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.
• Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.
• Saturday: A chance of showers between 11am and 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
• Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Ryan Bonner and Adam Nichols contributed to this report.

Photo credit: noaa.gov.