It's time to vote, but do you know your candidates? Poll Results

If you live in Westchester County chances are you have driven by a big political sign. Well if you did not know on November 7th people go to the polls to elect a county executive, a county clerk, a district legislator, a family court judge, and various other positions in their area or town. If you are a citizen of Westchester or a candidate in a Westchester race this is a very important article for you.

You may look at this and think that these elections are not important, but they are. The people you vote for are in charge of making your counties decisions. Some important issues in Westchester are immigration, taxes, and allowing gun shows. These are just a few important decisions that are in Westchester county. So please take a little time out of your day and VOTE.

So now onto the next essential step in an election, knowing who to vote for.

The most popular election in Westchester is between incumbent Republican Rob Astorino and Democrat State Senator George Latimer.

Astorino first rose to fame in 1991 when he unseated a town council member in Mount Pleasant. He soon became popular and was on the Westchester County Board of Ethics. Astorino became a district legislator in 2003 and failed to win County Executive in 2005. Astorino was first elected in 2009 after beating Democrat incumbent Andrew Spano 57-43. The main reason Astorino won was because the spending situation in Westchester was not great. Astorino vowed to cut property taxes, which he did cut by 2%. Ever since then he has kept the tax levy the same. Astorino won a second term after beating New Rochelle Mayor Noam Bramson in 2013. Astorino is a supporter of now President Donald Trump and got a campaign donation from Trump. He recently vetoed a pro-immigration bill in 2017.

George Latimer has been a State Senator for 5 years. In 2012 Latimer's opponent Bob Cohen spent four times as much money as Latimer and the district was redistricted to exclude Democratic parts of Chappaqua, Scarsdale, White Plains, and New Rochelle. It instead added Republican areas such as Eastchester, Bronxville, and eastern areas of Yonkers. Despite Latimer's disadvantages he won the 37th district 54-46. Latimer is a ranking member on the Education Committee. Latimer was also a town council member, the chairman of the Westchester Board of Legislators, and was an assembly member. While Latimer was on the Board of Legislators property taxes decreased by 7%. As an assembly member a big accomplishment was how he protected the Long Island Sound. He now is working in Albany.

Now since you know who these two men are let's look at the numbers. The first poll released is an internal tracking poll by the Latimer campaign released on October 23rd. The poll shows that Latimer leads Astorino 47-46. The second poll is a survey asking people who they would vote for on the White Plains Daily Voice. The survey currently shows that Latimer is leading 52-48. The most recent poll conducted by a non-biased polling group showed Latimer leading 46-43. As you can see Latimer is leading in every poll. All of these polls have the candidates within four points of each-other. The latter poll also said that property taxes are the most important issue.

I wanted to conduct a poll for my local area of Croton on Hudson. We are situated in District 9 where Democratic incumbent Catherine Borgia is being challenged by Republican Robert J Outhouse. The race is tight and it is important since their are currently 9 Democrat legislators and 7 Republicans. I also polled for the local Croton town election between Croton United and Croton Dems. Croton On Hudson is a blue town, but it is not the bluest of blue. It is a very important town for all the candidates in the election.

The first poll was between George Latimer and Rob Astorino. These voters are very excited about the election, and are most active in their support. So the final poll results in Croton On Hudson for very likely voters for County Executive is...

65-35 with George Latimer in the lead. If you are an Astorino supporter you should not be happy about these results.

The second poll told a different story. So the race for district Legislator goes to...

55-45 with Robert Outhouse in the lead. This contradicts the first poll, so the third poll is probably the most accurate poll.

The last poll was conducted for the towns mayor and two trustees. Twice as many people responded to this question. So the towns party that is ahead in the poll is...

55-45 with Croton Democrats in the lead.

You may look at this poll and be surprised, happy, or even angry, but the polls are fairly believable. I was surprised about Latimer's lead, but remember this is a sample of voters in a blue town. The weird thing is the second poll shows the Republican up. The reason that I believe this is simply because Mr. Outhouse is more in touch with Croton than Mr. Astorino. He has been a police officer in the area. This brings up another question. Will voters vote down ballot? I personally think that about 75% of voters will vote down ballot. This is a good thing for Astorino and Borgia. I think that most voters will switch party lines when voting for the town election. I think that more people will vote Democrat and Croton United than people voting Republican and voting for Croton Democrats. I also have a feeling that there is a small number of Republicans in the town who feel nervous to come out in a blue town. With this in mind I have decided to switch the numbers a little bit. I now think that...

55-45 with Latimer in the lead (a 10 point increase for Mr. Astorino)

51-49 with Borgia in the lead (a 6 point increase for Ms. Borgia)

55-45 with Croton Democrats still in the lead (a 0 point difference for Croton United)

Those are what I think the final results for the town of Croton On Hudson are. This does not mean I think those are the final results for Westchester.

I think most towns are going to vote more Republican, and a couple of towns are going to vote more Democrat. As for the District race I think Borgias lead will slightly increase as she will probably do well in areas such as Cortlandt and Ossining. I even believe that Borgia will exceed 60% in Cortlandt. That makes the final results even more different. I now believe...

53-47 with Borgia in the lead. I believe that Borgia will get high numbers in Democrat areas (60+), and Outhouse will only mildly to moderately win Republican areas (51-59). Despite this I believe that Outhouse could pull off an upset because he is relatable, and he could make Republican areas margins high and make Democrat areas tight. That being said I still stick with 53-47.

52-48 with Latimer in the lead. A lot of people are not thrilled with Astorino. He has close ties with Trump, he spent campaign donation money on a Rolex watch, accepted campaign money from Breitbart executive Robert Mercer, and has not significantly lowered property taxes in Westchester. That being said Latimer is not squeaky clean either. Latimer did not pay his parking tickets until recently and drove an unregistered Jeep around, missed a key budget vote so he could go on vacation (even though he got permission to do so), and his wife owes $46,000 in taxes for her mothers house. Besides the flaws of the candidates I think that Latimer will win Democrat areas easily, and Astorino will do worse in Republican towns than he has done previously. Astorino lost Westchester by 13 points against Governor Andrew Cuomo in 2014, but Cuomo was an incumbent Governor. I think that the race will come down to areas where Astorino got 51-58% in 2013. These areas include Mount Kisco where Astorino got 53%, Bedford where Astorino got 57%, and Ossining where Astorino got 51%. If Latimer can win the Democrat areas by bigger margins, win most of the battleground towns, and make Astorinos margins in Republican areas small than Latimer has the election in the bag. I think that Latimer will benefit in areas where he represents such as New Rochelle where Astorino got 47%, Rye where Astorino got 60%, and other areas that Latimer represents. If Latimer won Rye that would not only be a huge improvement for Westchester Democrats, but it would mean that people really like how Latimer is doing in the senate. If Astorino retains most of what he won in 2013 he will win. Latimer is the one who needs to make ground, and Astorino is the one who needs to make sure that does not happen.

So on November 7th remember to VOTE!!!

Written by concerned by 12 year old Evan Hunt of Croton on Hudson

If you have any comments on this article please email me at PlayaEvan1@gmail.com