Red Wave Possible In Hudson Valley Congressional Districts: Analysis

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — Political shifts in the Hudson Valley this spring have brought big changes and could bring even more in November, according to RealClearPolitics.

The recent convoluted, crazy process of redistricting — required every 10 years after the Census, gerrymandered by Democrats after the state's nonpartisan commission couldn't agree, rejected by a judge and redrawn by a court-appointed monitor — has put three erstwhile Democratic Congressional seats in the Hudson Valley in the "leaning pink" or "toss-up" categories by the political analysis website.

Take District 17. It is currently represented by freshman Congressman Mondaire Jones. But its boundaries migrated north and Jones doesn't live there any more.

Who does live in District 17: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who currently represents District 18, which migrated further north.

The District 19 seat was held by Rep. Antonio Delgado, but he quit to become New York's lieutenant governor.

Maloney announced his intention to run for the seat where he lives. Jones announced he would run for District 10 (he'll move to Greenwich Village if he wins).

So out of the three seats, held by Democrats, only District 17 has a Congressman running for re-election. RealClearPolitics predicts that the open Congressional seats in Districts 18 and 19 will be taken by Republicans. They rate District 17 as a toss-up.

The new map that created all this uncharted territory was posted online in May by monitor Jonathan Cervas. Note District 19 in red.

District 17

The new district covers northern Westchester County, all of Putnam and Rockland and southeastern Dutchess.

There are four Republicans vying for the seat, running in the primary Aug. 23: Rockland County Legislator Charles Falciglia, Orange County business executive Jack Schrepel, State Assemblyman Mike Lawler of Rockland and Somers Town Councilman William Faulkner.

Lawler said he welcomed RealClearPolitics' analysis, calling Maloney's abysmal re-election chances "abysmal."

"A seat that initially started as a 'Likely Dem' has shifted to being a 'Toss-Up' just two weeks after I entered this race," he said in a statement. "It's clear that Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Sean Maloney, and their allies in Washington are worried about our campaign, and we are going to take the fight directly to their tax-and-spend, anti-law enforcement, inflationary agenda all throughout this election cycle."

Meanwhile, Maloney is being challenged from the left by state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi. She had announced a bid for the open District 3 Congressional seat when it was first drawn and spanned the Long Island Sound, but targeted Maloney when the final map put her home territory of southwest Westchester squarely in District 16, which is held by progressive Democrat Rep. Jamaal Bowman.

Biaggi, who made a name for herself unseating previously untouchable Sen. Jeff Klein, has been endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was reportedly incensed by Maloney's decision to run in Jones' district and who demanded that he give up his chairmanship of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

While she represents a New York City district, AOC has ties in the Hudson Valley, having grown up in Yorktown.

District 18

The Republican candidate for New York’s 18th Congressional District, state Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R-New Windsor), pointed out that the shift there, from Lean D to toss-up and now Lean R, has also been recent. "Due to continued grassroots support across Orange, Dutchess, and Ulster Counties, our district has once again shifted in our favor," he said in a statement.

Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan has announced his candidacy for the seat. He faces Michael Berean, a Rockland County businessman, in the Democratic primary Aug. 23.

Moreover, in a move typical of this jury-rigged election season, Ryan will also appear on the ballot in the District 19 special election Aug. 23.

District 19

District 19 is about to shift north and west, to Columbia, Delaware, Greene, Otsego, Schoharie, Sullivan, and Ulster counties, and parts of Broome, Dutchess, Montgomery, and Rensselaer counties.

Beforehand, because Delgado resigned to become lieutenant governor, there must be a special election in the current 19th to fill the last four months of his term.

"I’m all in to protect Rep. Antonio Delgado’s seat in the upcoming August special election and to win in NY-18 in November. To fight for and serve the community that’s always had my back," Ryan said. "We’ve got plenty of career politicians in Washington; what we need more of are leaders who’ve actually laid it on the line for our country — served in combat, built a business, united people during tough times. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Let’s go."

Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro is running in both the special election, the Republican primary and the general election.

“I’m honored to have the support of so many Upstate New Yorkers, and I look forward to serving my neighbors in Congress, admittedly a few months earlier than I originally expected," Molinaro said after receiving nominations from both the Republican and Conservative parties.

Molinaro started right in on his neighbor, calling Ryan "Nancy Pelosi’s hand picked candidate."

According to Ballotpedia, the candidates so far for the Democratic primary Aug. 23 are Ryan, Jamie Cheney and Josh Riley. (Cheney is also on the ballot for state Sen. District 40, according to the politics website.) The Republican primary pits Molinaro against Brandon Buccola.