Health Officials Warn Of 'Tripledemic' Spike After Holiday Gatherings

LONG ISLAND, NY — Experts are warning of a possible surge in "tripledemic" illnesses after the upcoming holiday gatherings.

With COVID-19 and influenza cases on the rise, Northwell Health clinical experts this week warned of an uptick in the illnesses in the new year if New Yorkers don’t take "common sense" precautions such as masking in crowded indoor spaces, getting vaccinated for flu and COVID-19, and staying home if they don’t feel well.

Health care workers are bracing for a winter surge "unlike any previously seen," Northwell Health said.

Respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, combined with an early start to flu season, has already left hospitals operating at capacity. Holiday gatherings can potentially spark new cases, Northwell Health said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul also urged New Yorkers to take precautions to prevent the spread of viral respiratory infections.

"As New Yorkers gather together this holiday season, I urge everyone to remain vigilant and continue to use all available tools to keep themselves, their loved ones and their communities safe and healthy," she said. "Test before gatherings and travel, and stay up to date on vaccine doses. If you test positive, talk to your doctor about potential treatment options."

The New York State Department of Health issued a report showing a 19 percent week-over-week jump in lab-confirmed flu cases across New York and week-over-week hospitalizations up 6 percent. Cases of influenza have now been detected in all 62 counties across the state, Hochul said.

Hochul previously launched a public awareness campaign featuring New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett speaking directly to New Yorkers about the three viruses now circulating in the state with similar symptoms and the potential to cause serious illness.

Most recent data from Hochul's office indicates a 8.76 percent COVID positivity rate across New York, with 39 deaths reported.

Long Island has the second-highest positivity rate statewide, at 9.29 percent — western New York leads the state at 11.44 percent.

The latest COVID-19 variants — XBB and BQ are related to Omicron — have been identified locally and hospitalizations have risen steadily since October, Northwell Health said.

While RSV is trending down after a spike this fall, COVID cases have jumped 30 percent in the weeks after Thanksgiving, Northwell Health reported.

“We’re expecting cases to bump up after Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa and New Year’s celebrations, so we’re keeping a close eye on that,” said Dwayne Breining, MD, medical director of Northwell Health Labs. “And we have not peaked yet with the flu, so we expect to be in this for the next month or two.”

More than 9,000 positive influenza cases have gone through the lab, three times the volume of a pre-pandemic flu season to this point, he said. To that end, one in every four tests is positive for flu, Dr. Breining said, urging people to get vaccinated.

The COVID-19 booster, targets Omicron and is protective against the latest variants, he added. Right now, just 40 percent of hospitalized cases are for incidental COVID-19, a "stark drop" from earlier this year when more than half of COVID-positive patients were hospitalized for reasons other than the virus, Northwell Health said.

“I just want to emphasize that primary vaccination — both against influenza and with the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine — really remains the mainstay,” said Matthew Harris, MD, medical director of crisis management and emergency preparedness at Northwell Health. “What makes this winter particularly challenging is, in addition to the volume of patients, the fact that many of the treatments that we have for COVID-19, such as monoclonal antibodies, are not effective against the current variants. It remains a subject of significant concern.”

And, experts added, it's not just RSV, COVID-19 and flu: A large number of cases include non-COVID-19 coronavirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus and adenoviruses. A national shortage of antiviral medications is complicating outpatient treatment, but not at the hospital level, where supplies remain adequate, Northwell Health said.

Officials expressed concerns for children: “We’re not over this yet,” said Sophia Jan, MD, chief of division for general pediatrics at Cohen Children's Medical Center. “We’re up 150 percent for sick visits compared to this time last year and 300 percent from two years ago. Those numbers keep rising. While we have a little bit of a reprieve with RSV, we’re still seeing RSV. And the number of kids coming in with Flu A are only going up.”