While Possibly Spared Henri's Wrath, LI 'Not Out Of Harm's Way'

EAST END, NY — With Henri downgraded to a tropical storm and heading east, expected to make landfall near Connecticut or Rhode Island, Long Island appears to have dodged a bullet, officials said — with the main concerns now centered on upstate New York.

But officials say it's not over yet for Long Island — there could still be significant impacts from flooding and storm surges.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the "good news" was that Henri had shifted about 40 miles east, expected to impact Long Island around 11 a.m. Sunday a little west of Montauk. The storm is then projected to bend again to the west, bringing Henri closer to the New York State border and impacting the Hudson Valley, Albany, and capital regions, Cuomo said.

On Long Island, Nassau County is expecting about 3 inches of rain, with about 4.5 inches expected in Suffolk County.

"This can cause some flooding but nothing catastrophic — if this track remains," Cuomo said.

Winds on Long Island are expected to be around 40 miles per hour with gusts up to 75 miles per hour, Cuomo said. Still, the governor added, there are serious storm surges to consider, with 3-to-5 feet surges expected in the Long Island Sound and 4-to-5 feet expected in the ocean. "This is nothing to take lightly," Cuomo said.

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone also spoke Sunday and said it was important to remain vigilant.

Concerns still center on the surge during high tide on the North Shore and East End, with sustained winds on the East End of 30 to 40 miles per hour and gusts of 50 to 60 miles per hour, Bellone said. Swift water boats and rescue teams stand ready to be deployed on both the North and South Forks if necessary, Bellone said.

Overnight, 20 families sought refuge in Red Cross shelters, mostly on the eastern end of the county, Bellone said.

The concerns remain centered on the Catskills and Hudson Valley, where up to 5 inches of rain are expected, Cuomo said. If the storm continues to slow and drop rain, that could be problematic for grounds that are already saturated, leaving homes in potential danger, he said. "The problem has shifted," Cuomo said.

State crews are out on beaches shoring up dunes, especially on the South Shore of Long Island, to protect shorelines, Cuomo said.

Also, President Joe Biden has also approved a pre-landfall emergency declaration to allow for federal reimbursement for storm prep, Cuomo said. New York deployed 500 members of the National Guard, 1,000 State Police, and New York State Department of Transportation equipment statewide; those resources were moved in "flex mode" from Buffalo to Long Island, an expensive process for which local governments will now be reimbursed, he said.

Despite the good news, Cuomo said he doesn't want New Yorkers to be complacent. "There is plenty to worry about. The track can change and if that storm moves 40 miles west, we will have a much different situation." Heavy rains and flooding still remain a concern, he said. "We are not out of harm's way," he said.

Cuomo said while he has asked emergency management teams to stay on until Tuesday, his last day as governor will be Monday and his resignation will be effective as of Tuesday morning.

Dominic Rammuni, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office at Upton, said residents would see the "most impactful" weather from Henri Sunday morning as the storm moved onshore. Bands of rain will pass through from the morning to early afternoon as the center of the storm tracks just east of Montauk, potentially making landfall on Rhode Island, he said.

As of Sunday, winds are expected to reach 40 to 50 miles per hour, with isolated hurricane gusts and sustained winds of 70 miles per hour, Rammuni said. Henri was downgraded to a "strong" tropical storm as of 7 a.m., he said.

Still, Rammuni said, impacts could be felt, with just small differences between a tropical storm and a minimal hurricane.

"We are talking about heavy rainfall; that's our primary concern," he said.

Six inches of rain on top of what has already fallen, along with flash flooding and wind gusts up to 50 or 60 miles an hour, especially near Montauk, are the chief issues, Rammuni said.

The weather is expected to begin to improve late Sunday afternoon. Residents can still expect a few showers to move through the region Monday, with the system slowing down. A flood watch will remain in effect until 8 p.m. Monday night, Rammuni said.

"My best suggestion to folks is, if you don't have anywhere to be today, just stay inside and enjoy the rainy day," he said. "Fortunately, the storm is not as strong as what was once feared."

Storm surges on the North Fork, in the Long Island Sound, are still something to watch, with overwash around Orient Point still a possible threat, he said.

Southampton Town Supervisor Jay Schneiderman said Dune Road was closed on Sunday, as was the Ponquogue Bridge in Hampton Bays.

Water was seen at the top of the stones at the Shinnecock Inlet jetty, Schneiderman said. At Coopers Beach, the water was not yet up to the point of the dunes.

"I'm definitely relieved," Schneiderman said. "We may dodge the bullet. It's still hard to gauge at this point."

Schneiderman, who issued a voluntary evacuation order for low-lying areas in town, said he and staff went door-to-door to alert residents Saturday. "Most people were already leaving or had left," he said; staff collected contact information from residents to be able to contact them.

Concerns remain the possibility of a significant amount of rain and flooding, he said.

Residents are advised to stay off the roads because periods of heavy rain are expected that could make visibility very bad, Schneiderman said. "The roads are soaking wet and if the wind does pick up to 35 to 50 miles per hour, we are going to see trees coming down. It's dangerous to be out driving," Schneiderman said.

Although power outages are expected, the supervisor said they may not be as widespread and, with the storm downgraded, power may be restored much more quickly, with crews from Nassau County and western Suffolk able to reach the area more expeditiously.

In Riverside and Flanders, Schneiderman reported that roads were fully passable with flooding at the end of roads only. A total of 366 residents were without power Sunday morning, with 278 in Bridgehampton and 55 in Riverside, he said. Schneiderman said, as of around 10 a.m., he'd only heard one report so far of a downed tree on power lines.

Ryan Murphy, Southampton Town's emergency manager, said conditions were being monitored. There are some concerns about Peconic Bay and Flanders Bay Sunday morning, Murphy said. "With the way the wind and the water are pushing, our concern is that it may build up in the bay," he said, especially around high tide at 12:14 p.m. on the Peconic Bay.

"If we can get through that first high tide, without serious damages or water creeping up into houses, I'll feel confident that we can weather this storm," he said.

Murphy said a big falloff from rain and wind is expected at about 3 p.m.

"I don’t want to jinx us but I feel a lot better about it," Murphy said, especially since the storm moved even further to the east, east of Block Island. "This puts us in a position where we are on the better side of the storm," he said.

With excessive winds more than 40 to 50 miles per hour, and not 70 miles per hour as expected, the hope is that there will be less downed trees on power lines as the ground saturates, he said.

The Southampton Fire Department reported eight calls since 4 a.m., one involving a dog that fell into Lake Agawam but was rescued.

In East Hampton Town, Supervisor Peter Van Scoyoc said some bands of heavy rain had come through earlier Sunday morning with wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour. There were some branches down here and there, he said.

"We do expect to have some significant high tides with the wind coming from an easterly direction," Van Scoyoc said. Low-lying areas including Gerard Drive, Lazy Point and Northwest Harbor could see the greatest impact especially at high tide around Sunday morning, he said.

"It looks like the high tide and surge will be lower than anticipated," Van Scoyoc said Sunday. "The winds are coming out of the north, and that is helping."

Town officials do not want anyone on the beaches, which are closed Sunday, he said. "We want everyone to stay safe. We don't want people out on the sand. Hang tight, stay safe, stay indoors," he said.

Southold Town Police Chief Martin Flatley said Sunday's early morning advisories were "certainly better" with the storm predicted to move east of Long Island, leaving the area with wind gusts in the 30 to 50 miles per hour range, 3 to 6 inches of rain and tidal surge of 3 to 4 ft. "Better than hurricane-force winds," he said.

Town officials remain concerned about flooding with tidal surges at the high tide cycle around 11 a.m., Flatley said.

Two shelters are open for those wishing to evacuate, the primary at the Southold Community Center and an additional shelter at the Oysterponds Elementary School in Orient, Flatley said.

"We'll have to wait and see what the outcome is but we will be relieved if we can dodge what could have been a major storm," Van Scoyoc said, adding that it was still a little early to tell. "We may have dodged a bullet. Hopefully, we can get through this by late afternoon."