New York Coronavirus: 10,000+ Deaths Projected By August

NEW YORK, NY — The coronavirus pandemic could take as many as 10,243 lives in New York over the next four months, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The Seattle-based institute, affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, based its projections using the expected peak of the infection in each state and the number of hospital beds, intensive-care beds and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed.

For the U.S. as a whole, the institute predicted that coronavirus infection would peak on April 14, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 50,000 short of the supply and the supply of intensive-care beds for such patients would fall short by nearly 15,000. Nationwide deaths on that date will top 2,300, the institute predicted, and would total more than 81,000 by Aug. 4.

The authors of the research article containing these findings wrote, “Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states.”

In New York, the institute projects the infection rate to peak on April 6, when the number of beds available for coronavirus patients will fall more than 35,000 short of the 48,000 needed, and the number of intensive-care beds will fall almost 7,000 short of the 7,667 needed.

On that peak date, deaths are expected to total 547, and more than 10,000 New York residents could die by Aug. 4, the institute said.

In making projections for the states, the institute took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.

“The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths,” the authors wrote.

In New York, schools were closed March 17, non-essential services were ordered closed March 21 and a stay-at-home order was issued March 19. No travel ban has been ordered in New York.