Snowy Winter Increasingly Likely For North Carolina: Forecast

CHARLOTTE, NC — If you're a fan of snow, there's good news. This winter may bring plenty of snow to North Carolina, a change from the last few years, according to a new forecast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has announced its annual winter outlook this week, and because of a likely El Nino system there is expected to be above average amounts of precipitation in our region.

While we're also expected to have a mild winter, the greater levels of precipitation should lend itself to more snow than average, and the Southeastern region typically depends on the strength of El Nino when it comes to snowfall.

The last El Nino did result in "Snowzilla" in 2015-16, so we could get one. However, this will be a relatively weak El Nino, so don't expect to get pounded with blizzards throughout the season.

The rest of the country may get less snow because they're forecasted to be warmer than normal, whereas our temperatures should be about average. Forecasters say that no part of the country will be colder than average based on current forecasts.

Of course, these are early forecasts that could prove to be wildly off-base. But if you want an idea of what we're expecting this coming winter, NOAA says keep your snowshoes handy.

"We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency's Climate Prediction Center. "Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North."

If you're wondering what El Nino means, according to the NWS it is an "ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific." During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North, the National Weather Service says.

Most of the country is looking warmer than normal this winter and the NWS stresses that "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures."

As for precipitation potential, all of North Carolina is expected to be wetter than normal.

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So How Much Snow Are We Getting This Winter?

Several publications, including the Farmers' Almanac, will make long-range snowfall predictions but the National Weather Service says that is basically impossible to do.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur," the National Weather Service states.

See related: Cold Wintry Mix Or Mild: Almanacs Disagree On NC Winter Forecast

Several Long-Range Winter Forecasts Have Been Released
The National Weather Service's winter prediction comes six weeks after the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmers' Almanac made their winter projections.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, which released its forecast in late August, predicts a warm and dry winter with less snow than normal in the Southeast. But the Farmer's Almanac, which made its prediction in September, offers a much bleaker outlook of a cold and snowy winter.

The high-points from the Farmer's Almanac winter prediction for the Southeast include:

• Colder than normal temperatures.
• More snowfall than normal in January and February
• Frigid weather mid-February.
• Cold to keep its grip on the region after the official start of spring.

The Weather Channel in its long-range forecast for November, December and January predicts colder than average temps for the Southeast in November, December and January.

We'll know by April 1 who was right. There are only 133 days until Spring 2019!

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With reporting by Adam Nichols and Brian McCready/Patch

Photo via Shutterstock