Will Coronavirus Overwhelm NC Hospitals' Capacity?

CHARLOTTE, NC — North Carolina public officials reported Wednesday morning that 23 more people tested positive for the new coronavirus overnight, bringing the statewide total number to 63 positive cases.

The state is tracking positive test results and deaths — so far there are no fatalities from the disease in North Carolina. However it is difficult to track numbers of those hospitalized for treatment, Dr. Elizabeth Cuervo Tilson, state health director and the chief medical officer for the Department of Health and Human Services, said Wednesday afternoon at a press conference.

To date, the NC State Laboratory of Public Health and outside facilities have tested 1,850 people overall. What these numbers suggest is a steady increase in the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus.

Don't miss the latest coronavirus updates from health and government officials in North Carolina. Sign up for Patch news alerts and newsletters for what you need to know daily.

Gov. Roy Cooper, along with local public health officials, has taken a number of measures to stem the spread of the respiratory disease COVID-19, from banning large groups of people to closing down schools throughout the state for two weeks.

On March 10, Cooper declared a state of emergency and, three days later, Mecklenburg County followed suit. On Tuesday, Cooper ordered all bars and restaurants to end table seating and banned indoor dining. In addition, Cooper issued an executive order Tuesday to help ease the impact of the disease on state workers by expanding access to unemployment benefits.

On March 12, NC DHHS also temporarily relaxed rules to allow medical facilities to increase bed capacity above existing limits should the need arise while treating COVID-19 patients.

Despite these measures, the number of people contracting COVID-19 is expected to rise in North Carolina, and the Charlotte metro region is projected to run out of hospital beds for patients if the number of infected people rises by even a few hundred, according to an analysis by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica.

Patch reached out to Atrium Health, Novant Health, Lake Norman Regional and the North Carolina Hospital Association for additional details. We will update this story as soon as we hear back from them.

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, Charlotte, NC had 4,870 total hospital beds, of which about 70% were occupied, potentially leaving only 1,470 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 770 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The Charlotte, NC region has a population of about 2.7 million residents; 13% are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In the moderate scenario, in which 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Charlotte, NC would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8% of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40% of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Charlotte, NC would receive an estimated 167,000 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 5,580 beds over 12 months, which is 3.8 times the number of available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Charlotte, NC region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 250 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 4.8 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica’s full story and specifics about hospitals in your area

Michael O’Connell, Patch staff, contributed

RELATED:

• Coronavirus Study: Here’s How Many NC Adults Are At Higher Risk
• NC Coronavirus: Macy’s Temporarily Closes All Locations In State
• NC Schools To Close For 2 Weeks Amid Virus Concerns: Report
• Community Spread Of Coronavirus ‘Likely,’ Gov. Cooper Says