PA's COVID Numbers Falling; State Says Mitigation Orders Working

PENNSYLVANIA — COVID-19 virus numbers in nearly every key category measured by the state Department of Health have once again declined over the past week across Pennsylvania, giving residents and officials hope that the most severe numbers of the fall and winter surge could be behind the region.

The numbers come from the state's Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard, which follows six metrics on a statewide and county-by-county basis to track the course and the strength of the coronavirus. The most recent statistics cover the period from Dec. 18 to Dec. 24.

State leaders say that the improved metrics are a sign that the additional coronavirus mitigation measures, including a controversial ban on indoor dining, are working.

“This is the second consecutive week that we see a decrease in percent positivity, providing us with data that our efforts to reduce and mitigate the spread are working,” Gov. Tom Wolf said in a statement Monday.

He urged residents not to let up. “Although this is encouraging, we need to stay the course in our fight against COVID-19. We need Pennsylvanians to continue efforts to stay safe, stay home as much as possible, wear a mask when out of our homes, and avoid gatherings with those outside our households.”

The percent positivity rate on tests, pointed to as one of the more important and reliable metrics because it takes into account increased testing, declined to 15.1 percent this week. That number has steadily dropped from 15.8 last week, which was a decline from 16.1 the week before.

Still, the number remains triple of the 5 percent threshold, which is what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention labels as "concerning." All 67 of the state's counties are above 5 percent, and 19 counties remain above 20 percent.

Case numbers have fallen even more sharply, with this week's 47,813 reflecting a 10,321 decrease. It's more than double last week's decrease of around 4,000. The incidence rate per 100,000 residents is also down to 373 from 453.

But perhaps the most notable fall was in overall hospitalizations. That's a metric which has continued to climb nearly every week for months, with officials warning that hospitals and emergency rooms in many parts of the state were overloaded. However, that trend may now be reversing slightly. The average daily hospitalizations this week sat at 6,080, a step in the right direction from last week's 6,140.

Though hospitals still have ventilators to spare, the number of COVID-19 patients needing them continues to rise, increasing to an average daily number of 744 this week, up from 711 last week.

One other related metric saw a decrease: the percentage of emergency room visits due to COVID-19 symptoms dropped from 1.4 percent to 1.3 percent.

After seeing surges in cases following gatherings over Halloween and Thanksgiving, state officials noted that they will be watching any post-holiday surge in new cases closely into the new year.

“The decisions we make over the holiday season will continue to impact the effect of COVID-19 across the state,” Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said. “We need to continue our efforts to practice social distancing, avoid gatherings, download the COVID Alert PA app, and answer the call when a public health professional is calling you."

The most recent restrictions, which ban indoor dining, expire Jan. 4. Levine said the state has no plans to extend the date of these restrictions.

Meanwhile, more than 30,000 doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine had been received by 109 hospitals in Pennsylvania as of Dec. 22, and more front-line health care workers continue to receive doses on a daily basis. Shipments of the Moderna vaccine were set to be received by 51 hosptials by the end of last week.