El Niño Summer Forecast: How Hot And Stormy Will It Be In PA?

Developing El Niño conditions are likely to contribute to hot summer conditions in Pennsylvania, according to a new forecast.

AccuWeather said the developing climate pattern is expected to bring building heat, rounds of severe weather, and shifting regional patterns across the United States.

Driven by warming ocean waters in the Pacific, the El Niño is likely to strengthen through the summer, influencing temperatures, storm tracks and hurricane activity, AccuWeather said.

The summer is expected to be warmer than usual across Pennsylvania and in most of the mid-Atlantic region. Periodic stretches of intense heat are expected, and the number of days at or above 90 degrees is anticipated to be average or above the average. Thunderstorms could also bring localized flooding, but longer dry spells are also possible as storm tracks shift.

All three of those factors, heat, storms, and drought, are climate change characteristics that have defined the warmer months in much of Pennsylvania for the last several years. El Niño, if anything, seems most likely to exacerbate what's already been exacerbated in Pennsylvania.

Across the South and Southeast, frequent thunderstorms and above-average rainfall are expected at times, especially as moisture increases later in the season. However, heat and humidity will still build between storm systems.

The Midwest and Ohio Valley could see a volatile mix of heat and severe weather, including an increased risk of damaging storms during peak summer months as atmospheric patterns become more active.

In the West, especially the Southwest, hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate, raising concerns about drought and wildfire risk as the summer progresses.

The emerging El Niño may also influence the Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to be near or slightly below average overall due to wind patterns that can disrupt storm formation.

Still, forecasters caution that even a quieter season can produce dangerous storms, and that impacts can vary widely by region.

Globally, scientists say El Niño conditions are likely to develop between late spring and summer, increasing the chances of extreme weather, including heavier rainfall in parts of North America and higher overall temperatures.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the evolving pattern will become more influential as summer progresses, meaning conditions later in the season could look markedly different from early summer.