Meteorological Winter Is Here: New Winter Weather Predictions For PA

PENNSYLVANIA — Last week, a blast of frigid weather heralded the arrival of meteorological winter on Dec. 1, but immediately gave way to mild conditions across most of Pennsylvania. So when can we expect sleet, snow and freezing rain? Here is a look at the latest snow forecasts and winter weather predictions.

It's a balmy start indeed to the holiday season, with highs in the 50s and even the 60s forecasted for most of the next week in large swaths of the state. Still, lows will drop into the 30s, and the past two weeks have offered more than enough nights with wind chills in the teens to have residents concerned about the season to come.

El Niño conditions are already inevitable, according to a consesus of scientists, with sea temperatures in the Pacific several degrees warmer than usual. This warmer water impacts what weather is carried on the winds to the United States. It's now considered very likely that this will keep temperatures warmer across much of the eastern seaboard, and conditions will likely "squash any widespread and meaningful cold in Northern Eurasia and eastern North America for weeks and possibly even months to come," Judah Cohen, with the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said last week.

The most recently updated long-range forecasts, however, advise residents not to be fooled by this warmer than usual winter. Just because the overall average will be higher, and there's a likelihood of more outlier days of unusual warmth, does not mean there won't be snow. Quite the opposite.

Eastern Pennsylvania in particular has a 33 to 40 percent chance at more precipitation, including snow, than a normal year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration Climate Prediction Center's mid-November updated forecast. The western three quarters of the state are expected to see average winter precipitation.

So when will this snow come? While some could fall in December, the bigger storms are not likely until later in the winter, according to multiple researchers. February, in particular, could be a month filled with snowstorms.

"As we get into the back end of the winter season, that will be our best opportunity to see some of these big northeast systems," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.

Indeed, in Philadelphia, which is in the midst of a "snow drought" where only one measurable snowfall has hit in the past 600 days, residents can expect a return to normalcy. That return, however, means that the area is predicted to see 75 percent more snow than last winter.

Accuweather predicts between 16 and 24 inches of snow this winter for Philadelphia, in line with the historical average of 23.1. Last year, the city received just 0.3 inches.