Despite MAGA Midterm Losses, Mastriano, Trump Hold Huge Leads In PA In New 2024 Polls

PENNSYLVANIA — President Donald Trump and State Sen. Doug Mastriano hold huge leads in their respective 2024 GOP primary races in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll released just short months after the party's MAGA wing suffered resounding losses in the election's biggest races.

It comes in the wake of increased chatter that Mastriano, who faces the sort of criticism from his party's establishment that serves as currency on the far right, will shift from his gubernatorial aspirations and run for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Bob Casey.

The Public Policy Polling survey indicated that 39 percent of Republicans favor Mastriano to be the GOP nominee for Senate in two years, compared to just 21 percent for establishment pick Dave McCormick, and 11 percent for another election denying contrarian in the Trump-brand, Kathy Barnette.

"The party base (wants) to continue its recent direction," surveyers said.

Head to head against McCormick, Mastriano wins 42 percent to 28 percent, the poll found.

That's despite Mastriano's nontraditional, far right campaign suffering a lopsided loss to Gov. Josh Shapiro last fall. Running on a platform that claimed Trump's 2020 loss was rigged, election reform was needed, public education spending should be slashed, and women who get abortions should be criminally charged, he lost to Shapiro by some 700,000 votes.

That margin was far more than even some of the Republican base that had favored McCormick in last spring's primary had feared. And it was a far more lopsided race that most recent major elections in the state, such as President Joe Biden's victory in 2020 over President Donald Trump (a margin of under 100,000 votes), President Donald Trump's even narrower victory in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, and the 2022 election's U.S. Senate race, in which John Fetterman beat Mehmet Oz by the far smaller margin of around 177,000 votes.

Despite that, Mastriano's continued popularity with a majority of Republicans indicates that the midterm defeats were not enough to sway Pennsylvanians away from MAGA candidates.

“We’ve seen people in the past, other Republican gubernatorial candidates, they rise and they disappear when they lose," Mastriano told Politico in a rare, in-person interview with a journalist from an established news outlet. "Why? You have people that love you and support you."

Indeed, Trump himself is still favored strongly by Pennsylvanians over the rest of the Republican field, beating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the same poll, 49 to 41 percent.

The Republican establishment is actively searching for alternatives.

“We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election," Montana's U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, charged with leading the GOP's Senate battles across the country in 2024, told NBC News. "His (Mastriano's) last race demonstrated he can’t win a general.”

McCormick, a hedge fund CEO, former Bush administration official, and the only establishment figure included in the new poll, is the current favorite. He recently published a book, and his sights are clearly set on making the same transition from the gubernatorial race to Senate race that Mastriano is considering.

Casey himself, meanwhile, was recently diagnosed with cancer and hasn't announced yet whether or not he'll run for re-election, sparking hopes from Republicans that the seat in what's traditionally been a battleground state is very winnable.

The Cook Political Report says that Pennsylvania "leans" Democrat as of late January, which is a step to the left from the outlet's "toss up" but still more competitive than it's "likely" and "solid" Democrat classifications.