Will PA Have A White Christmas In 2021?

PENNSYVLANIA — For some, the holidays simply aren’t the same without a blanket of fresh, white snow on the ground. But what are the odds of actually experiencing this simple pleasure on Christmas Day in Pennsylvania?

A white Christmas could be hard to come by in some parts of the United States this year, according to newly released forecasts by prognosticators including Farmers’ Almanac and Accuweather.

Meanwhile, other states face an even greater chance for snow thanks to La Niña, a meteorological phenomenon during which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-average levels.

La Niña played a major role in this year’s predictions, according to Accuweather, tending to steer storms northward and cutting off moisture to the southern portion of the United States.

So what does this mean for Pennsylvania this Christmas? Will we see fresh snow this holiday weekend?

It’s possible, according to Farmers’ Almanac’s Christmas 2021 forecast. The Farmers' Almanac is calling for "frigidly cold weather" which will hit the area "in time for the Christmas holiday," and residents may experience "scattered snow showers and flurries."

Similar long range forecasts are on hand for the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and the Midwest. In the Southeast, it will be dry and cold through that weekend. States in the northern Plains can expect fair skies and fair temperatures, while some Southern states including Texas and New Mexico should brace for cold weather.

If no snow falls on Christmas Day, will Pennsylvania at least see snow on the ground? The chances of more than an inch on the ground are just 10 to 20 percent for all of southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Bands in the central and western parts of the state could see as high as 40 to 50 percent. These guesstimates are based on three decades worth of the Farmers Almanac's climatological measurements.

In the Sierras, Cascades, the leeward side of the Great Lakes and northern New England, Christmas snow cover is a near certainty, Farmers’ Almanac says. In these regions, most precipitation in late autumn and early winter falls as snow, making the probability of snowfall exceed 25 percent.

At higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains and at many locations between the northern Rockies and New England, the probability of snow on the ground is more than 50 percent.

For those who opt for a green Christmas, the best places to be in late December will be Southern California, the lower elevations of the Southwest, and Florida.

Of course, Farmers’ Almanac isn’t the only expert in predicting holiday weekend weather. Accuweather also released its 2021 holiday forecast this week, and its predictions are different.

Accuweather is a bit more optimistic, noting that the greater Philadelphia area has a 25 to 50 percent chance of a white Christmas.

Accuweather also looks at the historical probability that residents of Illinois will have a white Christmas. This year's odds are lower for southeastern Pennsylvania.

The fascination with a white Christmas was likely popularized by the writings of Charles Dickens. The depiction of a snow-covered Christmas season in his 1843 classic “A Christmas Carol,” and a number of his other short stories, was reportedly influenced by memories of his childhood.

The song “White Christmas,” written by Irving Berlin and sung by Bing Crosby, is among the best-selling singles of all time. The tune nostalgically speaks of a white Christmas and has since become embedded in American holiday traditions.