Look Out for the Undertow

About a year ago, an era of Republican domination began in Harrisburg as the GOP rode the ‘wave election’ of 2010 to sweeping majorities in the state House (112 to 91), state Senate (30 to 20) and of course, the governor’s mansion.

With virtually unstoppable majorities, an ambitious agenda was set forth for the coming year. As we approach the one-year mark, I thought it would be appropriate to see how many of these big-ticket items have been crossed off the list.

1. Privatization of Liquor Stores

A main priority of the House Leadership, this proposal hasn’t gotten very far. A good analogy for deciding whether we should sell the state stores would be to imagine someone knocking on your door and asking if he could buy your house, but not telling you how much he is willing to pay. If he offered $50 million, you would probably sell, but if he offered $5, you would slam the door in his face.

For all of the hype about how much money we would allegedly save, no one has been able to produce hard numbers to show how it would actually work now that it’s time to stop campaigning on the issue and actually deal with it. The current system generates $485 million in revenues per year, employs lots of people and actually keeps prices much more competitive than conventional wisdom would have you believe. As a result, there is a general feeling of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.

2. School Choice

Remember all the talk about school vouchers and charter school expansion in the 2010 election? Yeah, neither do I—mainly because it never happened.

This issue is more about the very deep pockets of campaign donors who stand to benefit financially from such legislation, so we suddenly started hearing about the imperative need to save some kids from failing schools. Aside from the clear implication that it would be better to help some kids at the expense of an overwhelming majority who would presumably be left behind to fend for themselves, the issue rang hollow as the Republican Legislature that cut about $1 billion in school funding, even though there was a $600 million surplus which couldhave filled the hole.

A last-ditch attempt by conservative lawmakers to jam a voucher plan through the House failed just before Christmas, which is the best gift taxpayers, parents and students could have ever asked for.

3.

Despite overwhelming statewide support for a reasonable impact fee on natural gas extraction, the issue has been punted into a ‘conference committee’ while details of competing proposals are resolved. The vibe in the state Capitol is that House and Senate Republican leaders and the governor have been unable to come together on a plan that would be acceptable to the public, the gas industry and of course, “no-tax pledge” author/man pulling the strings Grover Norquist, the Washington D.C. lobbyist no one elected.

Complicating the matter is the red-hot issue of eliminating local governments’ ability to use zoning ordinances to ensure safety in drilling areas. Local government officials have been vociferous in their opposition, and the gas industry has been equally adamant in its cries for “consistency and uniformity,” even though the rhetoric more often than not fails to match up with reality.

Republican lawmakers will be forced to make a very tough decision, because there really is no way to serve both the voters and the checkbooks of the natural gas industry at the same time. This is an issue people could easily lose elections over in 2012.

With no major accomplishments under its belt and no way to blame the opposition party, it will be interesting to see if the Republican majority’s policy goals shift in 2012. With an election looming large, we may see these issues quietly put aside or dramatically shifted to create at least the illusion of accomplishment.

If it fails to fulfill any of its major promises, the real risk exists that many lawmakers who rode the ‘wave of 2010’ could fall victim to the ‘undertow of 2012’.