How Severe Gerrymandering Impacts Montgomery County

Perhaps nowhere else in the country has gerrymandering, the process of redrawing electoral maps to favor a given party, had such an extreme impact as Pennsylvania.

A recent New York Times study presents a series of visualizations which reflect the severity of the current situation, how much worse it could become, and what a fairly drawn map might look like.

Which solution becomes the reality for the 2018 election, and the 2020 election beyond that, depends on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which will determine this week whether or not the current map violates the state's constitution.

The most absurd example of gerrymandering in Pennsylvania and perhaps the nation is the 7th congressional district, which was redrawn in 2013. The district is barely contiguous, meandering northern Montgomery County through Delaware County and into South Philadelphia before twisting out to cover swaths of Chester, Berks, and Lancaster counties.

It's currently represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Pat Meehan. It's one of the seats that would turn Democrat under the Times' "possible nonpartisan map," which shapes districts in a more even, county-centric manner.

The nonpartisan map shows seven Democratic districts versus 11 Republican districts, based on the results of the 2016 election. The current map is six Democrat and 12 Republican, while an even more extreme gerrymandering, which could be possible under Republican control in 2020, would leave the state with three Democratic and 15 Republican districts.

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The current system benefits Republicans in Pennsylvania by "borrowing" heavily from Democratic strongholds in southeastern Pennsylvania and west-central Pennsylvania and looping them into Republican districts that are farther away from the blue centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh This dilutes the Democratic presence and allows Republicans to win key districts which they would otherwise lose.

Obviously, if the state's Supreme Court rules that the current gerrymandering map violates the state's constitution, the 2018 district map could look much more like the "nonpartisan" map proposed in the report.

There are three congressional districts that cover most of Montgomery County: the famed 7th District, the 13th District, and the 6th District.

New York Times visualizations show how redrawing the 7th district to make it much larger geographically turns a 28 point Clinton victory in 2016 into merely a 2 point victory. With potentially even more extreme gerrymandering, the district would be a 14 point victory for Trump.

In the 13th District, which covers a big part of the county and is currently represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle, gerrymandering doesn't change much. But in the 6th District, that of Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello, what could be a 6-point Clinton victory was redrawn in 2013 into what would become a 14 point Trump victory.

That's two seats in U.S. Congress that would be turned Democrat just in Montgomery County.

Check out the full New York Times report here.

Patch file photo