Old Farmer's Almanac Makes Winter 2018 Prediction For Pennsylvania

Although autumn doesn’t officially begin until Sept. 22, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter weather forecast. If you despise shoveling snow, you’ll like it.

The forecast for Pennsylvania calls for a warmer than normal winter, with below-average snowfall. For most of the state, the coldest periods will be in late December, early and mid-January, and early and mid-February. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, early and mid- to late January, and mid-March.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast is a stark contrast to the predictions of competing publication the Farmer’s Almanac. In August, the Farmer’s Almanac predicted a freezing, snowy winter for Pennsylvania and the Northeast.

So, of the two almanacs, which is typically more reliable?

Both publications have been making long-term weather predictions for more than 225 years. The forecasts are created months ahead of time, using various methods.

According to a Time Magazine report, The Old Farmer's Almanac bases its predictions on a "top-secret formula" that includes using a complicated mathematical formula devised by founder Robert B. Thomas in 1792. That top-secret formula uses sunspots, planetary positions and tidal patterns. The publication says it's 80 percent accurate.

Its rival, the Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1818, relies on mathematical and astronomical factors for its forecast, The Erie Times-News reports.

But don't get too excited about either forecast. Experts, including a Penn State meteorologist who has studied the reliability of the dueling forecasts, are skeptical of their accuracy.

"The ability to predict events that far in advance is zero," said Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight. "There's no proven skill, there's no technique that's agreed upon in science to be able to do that."

He also noted the forecasts use vague and imprecise terms, making it difficult to assess their true accuracy.

Photo: Kara Seymour