How Montco, Chesco Dems Made History In Long-Red PA Districts

Numerous Democrats made history in Montgomery and Chester counties on Tuesday night, earning victories in numerous seats that have either never been Democratic or that have been Republican for decades.

Still, it was not enough for Democrats to make up the substantial Republican margin in either the House or the Senate. With a few scattered races still too close to call, Democrats won 11 state Senate seats and 91 state House seats, while Republicans won 12 in the state Senate and 107 in the state House.

But what's more interesting is how profoundly a national trend played out here in southeastern Pennsylvania, as Democrats capitalized on voter reaction to President Trump to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Everyone is talking about the three women (and four across the state) who won races for U.S. Congress in the greater Philadelphia area: Madeleine Dean in the 4th, Mary Gay Scanlon in the 5th, and Chrissy Houlahan in the 6th. Pennsylvania currently has no women on its delegation to the U.S. House.

Seeing as those victories were forecasted by polls and analysts, however, they aren't as surprising or indicative of the strength of the local "blue wave"as some of the turnarounds in the state legislature.

Perhaps the best example of this came in the 44th Senatorial District, an area covering the Collegeville and Royersford areas as well as parts of Chester and Berks counties. The incumbent was an older Republican, State Rep. John Rafferty, challenged by a younger Democrat, political newcomer and 34-year-old Katie Muth. The district has been won by a Republican in every election since 1979 save once (and even that was by a former Republican who switched party affiliation).

Rafferty himself had held the seat since 2003. Just four years ago, he won the district in a landslide, but 18,000 votes.

On Tuesday, the race was competitive but Muth won clearly, by about 5,000 votes. The reason? It could be part of the Democratic wave, sure — the swing of moderates and undecided voters to the left on Tuesday — but at least as important if not much more so was the sheer number of voters which turned out. In 2014, this district cast around 79,000 votes in this race. Tuesday, they cast way more: about 120,000. Somewhere in those additional 41,000 voters was likely a good part of the 23,000 vote turnaround this year.

Here's a list of some other state Senate and House seats in the local area that have been fully red or largely red for decades, and were flipped on Tuesday:

• Maria Collett, State Senate 12th District (Republican for 71 years, since District's inception in 1947)
• Steve Malagari,State Rep. 53rd District (Republican for 45 years, since modern formation in 1973)
• Liz Hanbridge, State Rep. 61st District (Republican for 49 years, since inception in 1969)
• Joe Ciresi, State Rep. 146th District (Republican for 47 of the last 49 years)
• Joe Webster, State Rep. 150th District (Republican for 47 of the last 49 years)
• Danielle Friel Otten, State Rep. 155th District (Republican for 28 years, since 1990)
• Melissa Shusterman, State Rep. 157th District (Republican for 47 of the last 49 years)

All told, Democrats gained seven state legislature seats in Chester County and six in Montgomery County.

Democrats didn't win everything. In Bucks County, incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick won the U.S. Congress seat in the 1st District. And there were sweaths of Montgomery County which remained red. The closest call might have been incumbent Republican Bob Mensch holding off Linda Fields in the 24th Senatorial District in western Montgomery County. A more firm GOP win came from the 152nd House District, where incumbent State Rep. Thomas Murt held onto his Hatboro-area seat.

What remains to be seen is whether, after decades of Republican control, Tuesday night's results were an anomaly driven by circumstance and high voter turnout, or an omen of a changing political landscape.

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