Phillies Pushing Hard To Land Superstar Pitcher From Japan

PHILADELPHIA, PA — After falling just a win short of consecutive World Series appearances, the Phillies are not resting on their laurels. Multiple media sources indicate they're making a strong push to sign Japanese superstar pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, widely considered the greatest pitcher to ever make the move from Asia to the MLB.

Here's what you need to know about Yamamoto and the sweepstakes taking over the baseball world this month.

Just how good is Yamamoto?

For years, there was no clear barometer for how talent in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB) would translate to the MLB. Some players like Hideki Matsui, Hideo Nomo, and Shin-Soo Choo found great success in America and are recognized now as trailblazers. Other highly touted players did not pan out, and Japan (and South Korea) did not receive the same level of scouting attention from the MLB as Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Colombia, and elsewhere in Latin America.

This thinking was radically changed in 2017 by Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese two way star, and now two-time American League MVP, who has dominated as both a pitcher and a hitter. Ohtani has a 3.01 ERA in five MLB seasons, after sporting a 2.55 ERA across 92 games in the NPB earlier in his career.

Yamamoto, by contrast, has put up a stunning 1.82 ERA across 172 games in the NPB before deciding to make the move to America this winter. And he's just 25 years old. So how good? Anything can happen, but scouts believe he's a perennial Cy Young contender at his floor, with a Hall of Fame pedigree.

What can be made of the Phillies rumors?

There are two seemingly contradictory rumors swirling. One is that the Phillies like Yamamoto but won't spend big for him. The thinking here is likely tied to comments made by President Dave Dombrowski at the winter meetings in Nashville, when he indicated that the front office was relatively satisfied with the squad they had.

The other rumor is that the Phillies are expected to be "aggressive" in their pursuit, first reported by Alex Coffey in the Philadelphia Inquirer on Monday.

The hedging in the first rumor doesn't make much sense: for the past seven winters, ever since the Phillies decided they were done with their "rebuild," there has been no price tag too high for a player they truly wanted. Indeed, there is no example in that time of a player they targeted who they didn't acquire.

Gauging the Phillies chances

By all accounts, there are seven teams still involved in the pursuit of Yamamoto: the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Phillies.

Multiple sources place the Jays on the periphery of those talks. The Yankees and Dodgers, the sport's two financial and on-field titans, are generally seen as the favorites, while the pursuit of the Mets and their deep pocketed hedge-fund owner has garnered huge media attention.

The Phillies have already met with Yamamoto, and reports indicated that Bryce Harper was involved in a FaceTime pitch to attempt to woo him to Philly. Yamamoto is thought to crave the spotlight, something which plays into the Phillies hands, and no team among the suitors has a better recent track record of high pressure, postseason success than the Phillies.

Odds give the Phillies the fifth best chance to sign Yamamoto, but odds on these signings are hugely influenced by the direction of recent media coverage.

Here are the latest odds, according to Bookies.com:

1. New York Yankees: +175, 36.4% chance

2. Los Angeles Dodgers, +200, 33.3% chance

3. New York Mets, +275, 26.7% chance

4. Boston Red Sox, +1200, 7.7% chance

5. Toronto Blue Jays, +1400, 6.7% chance

5. Philadelphia Phillies, +1400, 6.7% chance

7. San Francisco Giants, +1500, 6.3% chance

8. St. Louis Cardinals, +1750, 5.4% chance

What the rotation looks like with Yamamoto

Phillies starters posted a 17.7 WAR (wins above replacement-level) figure in 2023, which was the best mark in all of baseball. That was largely a function of how deep Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola can go into games. If they don't get Yamamoto, they'll still be one of baseball's best.

With Yamamoto, they have the unquestioned best rotation in the MLB, and perhaps one to even rival that iconic 2011 rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt.

While Yamamoto would give the Phillies six good starters, they could move to a six-man rotation to keep arms fresh for another deep playoff run. They could also easily shift either Taijuan Walker or Cristopher Sanchez to the bullpen. Either way, combined with the emergent talent like young prodigy Mick Abel in the minor leagues, the Phillies would have incredible depth to pair with the high ceiling of their top starters. That depth is exactly the sort of difference maker the Phillies will need to topple Atlanta next year (in the regular season, that is, they seem to have the playoff Braves figured out).

When will a decision be reached?

Yamamoto has 42 days since his "posting" to agree to a free agent deal with an MLB team. That 42-day window opened on Nov. 21, and will close on Jan. 4, which is the latest date for his decision.

Many analysts believe he'll make his decision much sooner, however, with SNY.TV and others indicating that a decision appears likely this week before Christmas.