🛒 OP‑ED: Grocery Prices Aren’t Coming Back Down — And We’ve Been Softened Up to Accept It

Let’s just say the quiet part out loud. Grocery prices are NOT coming back down.

Somewhere between the pandemic, supply chain chaos, and endless “temporary surcharges,” we crossed a line. Grocery prices stopped being high and became normal.

Fuel costs more. Packaging costs more. Insurance costs more. Labor costs more. Crops are getting wiped out by climate events. Tariffs raise import costs that never quite reverse. And once companies realized we would pay $6 for eggs that used to be $1, we paid $12 next. In some places, even $14 and up, packaged with friendlier language like free range and pasture raised. (My dad used to say we kids were free range too, roaming the fields and woods of West Virginia; but I digress). Prices have settled back closer to $2 in some stores, but plenty of shoppers are still buying the $6 to $15 cartons without blinking. Because once the higher price becomes familiar, the old one starts to feel like the exception. While coffee hasn't been a $1 unless someone poured it by the cup at a diner, now an 11- or 12-ounce bag or tub can run $19 to $22. The budget buster has simply shifted aisles.

While all this was happening, we were slowly softened up by the very tools meant to help us cope.

Loyalty cards, gas and food perks used to feel like a bonus. Now they are a survival tool. Digital coupons, member pricing, buy five save five, and app only deals did not lower prices. They made higher ones feel manageable. They turned basic grocery shopping into a scavenger hunt where the reward is paying what you used to pay without the hoops.

And here is where it gets strategic.

Stores will lure you in with a low price on one or two high-visibility items. Milk. Eggs. Bananas. Rotisserie chicken. Then quietly make up the difference on everything else in your cart. Cereal. Cleaning supplies. Pantry staples. Frozen meals. The “deal” at the front of the store gets you in the door. The rest of your list is where they get their margin back.

So, what do you do?

Go in with a list.
Plan ahead.
Shop more than one store when it makes sense.

Because one store rarely has it all, and convenience is where the total creeps up fastest.

If you need help figuring out where the basics actually cost less this week, that is exactly what Cinnamon Toast PGH tracks every week across local stores. Connecting savvy shoppers, seniors, students, and super-savers across Pittsburgh with the best deals, hidden gems, and local love.

👉 cinnamontoastpgh.substack.com

The price you see today is not temporarily elevated. It is the new baseline. And unless every part of the system suddenly decides to get cheaper, which has never happened in modern economics, today’s total is likely the floor, not the ceiling.