Phour for Phour: Hot Stove Special Edition

Welcome to a special two-part edition of Phour for Phour!

With the NFL lockout officially over, and the MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching, we’ve decided to break our weekly column into two parts. 

Let’s first take a look at some of the wild trade rumors that surround the Phillies as they close in on Sunday’s trade deadline.

Batter up!

• Brown and Worley

There’s been a bunch of speculation revolving around possibly moving Domonic Brown or Vance Worley in a trade for a right-handed bat.  I’m here to tell you that moving either player would be an historically bad decision.

First, consider the fact that the Phillies are leading the National League in offense during the month of July, averaging just over six runs scored per game.  Sure, a right-handed bat is needed, but more than halfway through the season, the Phillies are heads and shoulders above the competition, and the offense has only recently produced to expectations.

Second, Worley is having a remarkable rookie season, and if it weren’t for his contributions, the Phillies would have nowhere near the cushion they have now.  When you consider that Blanton has taken longer than expected to return from the disabled list, and Kendrick is about as predictable as a tornado, the Phillies really can’t afford to lose Worley’s arm.

Third, Brown is going to be a once-in-a-generation player.  He’s a legitimate five-tool player who projects to be a consistent 30 / 30 guy with plenty of good years ahead of him.  To be willing to trade such talent away for a guy like Hunter Pence is just plain stupid.

It’s not that Pence is a bad player by any means, and his bat could certainly help the lineup, but he’ll never come close to the career that awaits Brown. 

Additionally, the Phillies will need two corner outfielders next season, after Raul Ibanez and his bloated contract hit the road.  Trading a soon-to-be stud for an above average player makes no sense in the short term or the long term.

• Baby aces

The Phillies have what could be the best single-A farm team in all of baseball, featuring highly rated pitching prospects in Cosart, May, and Colvin.  Their stock is rising by the minute, and this is where you can expect to see the Phillies making moves. 

Assuming the Phillies sign Hamels to a long-term deal, only two of the “baby aces” would be needed to replace Halladay and Lee when their contracts expire.  This would keep the window of opportunity open for a longer period while still providing flexibility when a move is needed.

• Blocked batters

The Phillies have an incredible first-base prospect in Singleton and another heavy hitter in Rizzotti. The problem with these two prospects is that Singleton is blocked from advancing to the big leagues due to Ryan Howard.

In Rizotti’s case, while scouts gush about his power potential, they also point out that he’s going to be a below average fielder at any position.  All that leaves is the possibility of becoming a career DH, a la Edgar Martinez.

The Phillies should try to move these two prospects first, but a combination with one of the young pitchers wouldn’t be unreasonable.

Potential targets

• Carlos Beltran

The Phillies have been linked to Beltran, who is probably the best available hitter for a team looking to make a run now.  He’s older, he has a lengthy injury history, but for a half year rental, you can’t get any better.

Due to age and injury concerns, Beltran shouldn’t require a king’s ransom, but then again, how willing would the Mets be to trade their best hitter to a division rival?

Chance of trade = 35%

Phillies offer:  Singleton, two other minor league players

• Hunter Pence

The Astros right fielder is having a solid year, and the two-time All Star is still young and still has room to develop.  The issue here is the asking price, which has been reported to be Domonic Brown and one of the young single-A pitchers.

The good news is that the same man who kept the Phillies in a decade-long slump is now the general manager of the Astros.  Rubén Amaro has already taken Ed Wade to the woodshed on trades that landed the Phillies Brad Lidge (2008) and Roy Oswalt (2010).

Can Amaro fleece Wade one more time?  Is there a chance that Pence could be had for Singleton and Cosart?

Chance of trade = 50%

Phillies offer:  Singleton, Cosart, and a couple career minor league players

B.J. Upton

Upton emerged as a dark horse candidate over the weekend, though upon closer look, it really doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Upton has speed and he’s a plus fielder, but his power and production numbers aren’t nearly high enough to offset his sub-par batting average. He could be acquired for fairly little, but lacking a consistent bat makes the trade highly unlikely.

Chance of trade = 15%

Phillies offer:  Rizzotti, Colvin

We’ll see how the week unfolds, and we’ll dissect everything next Monday. 

---

A look toward the NFL

NFL free agency will began at 12:01 a.m., today, with a flurry of player movement the likes of which have never been seen before.

Will Kolb be traded to Arizona?  Are the Eagles really interested in Favre?  What about the opening at right corner?

We’ll address these and more in the second part of our special edition later today. 

In the mean time, go ahead and start prepping your fantasy football big-boards.