More showers, thunderstorms possible tonight; Air Quality Alert in effect for Friday, as we will see hot, humid weather

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on July 15, 2016

After a few days of warm weather and bright sunshine, a weak area of low pressure to our south is helping to create overcast skies, and upper level energy to our west is helping to create scattered showers and moderate rain. At T.F. Green Airport, we received just over half an inch of rain after 12:30 p.m. in just two hours. Also, the precipitation helped cool the atmosphere, as temperatures dropped from 84 to the middle 70’s by noon.

For this evening, we have another chance for some showers and thunderstorms. A line of strong thunderstorms over eastern New York is working eastward. Although they will weaken as they approach Rhode Island, we may see isolated showers and thunderstorms pass over the state after 10 p.m., and end by 5 a.m. Expect patchy fog as well, due to the low temperature meeting the dewpoint temperature. Expect lows in the lower 70’s into Friday morning. We will keep overcast skies through the late morning, before drier air moves overhead. Expect sunny skies by noon, with highs soaring into the lower 90’s. Inland areas may reach the middle 90’s. With high humidity, heat indexes will be in the upper 90’s to near 100 degrees. Stay updated for any Air Quality Alerts or Heat Advisories to be put in effect by the National Weather Service. Update at 3:25 p.m.: An Air Quality Alert for off of Rhode Island is in effect from 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. Friday. The cold front will slowly move over Rhode Island before noon Friday, but the Ocean State is not expected to see any precipitation. However, the front may create isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Cape and Islands. We will keep clear skies, but lows will remain warm, only falling into the upper 60’s.

Heading into Saturday, high pressure coming down into the Ohio River Valley will give us mostly sunny skies, although a weak disturbance passing through the Mid-Atlantic will bring increasing clouds to the south coast by the late afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the middle 80’s inland, and the middle to upper 70’s along the coast. By Saturday night, that weak disturbance may bring showers to the south coast, with partly cloudy skies inland. A passing shower is possible further north, but the models are still unsure how far north the precipitation shield will actually reach. We will call for partly to mostly cloudy skies inland, with low temperatures in the upper 60’s. By Sunday, the disturbance moves offshore, and the entire state is influenced by the high. Mostly sunny skies is expected, with highs in the middle 80’s. We stay under partly cloudy skies Sunday night, with lows in the upper 60’s.

We begin a new week under the influence of a high pressure ridge offshore. However, a cold front in the western Great Lakes Monday morning will bring increasing clouds through the afternoon. We will see mostly sunny skies through the morning, with high and mid-level clouds taking over the skies by the late afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 80’s. The cold front reaches Rhode Island by 2 a.m. Monday night. We will see the risk for more showers and thunderstorms into the morning commute on Tuesday. Low temperatures Monday night is forecast to be in the upper 60’s. By Tuesday, the front will be moving offshore, but stalling. So, any showers in the morning will remain widespread, with more isolated showers and thunderstorms expected through the afternoon. Otherwise, we will see partial clearing, with partly sunny skies and less humidity. High temperatures will reach the middle 80’s. High pressure over Ohio will continue to influence our weather right into next Thursday evening. Expect highs Wednesday and Thursday to reach the lower to middle 80’s, with low temperatures Tuesday into Thursday night in the middle to upper 60’s.

First Pitch Forecast (for McCoy Stadium, home of the Pawtucket Red Sox):

Friday, July 15th vs. Charlotte (7:05 p.m.): Partly cloudy, 86.

Saturday, July 16th vs. Charlotte (6:05 p.m.): Partly cloudy, 82.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.