Showers and thunderstorms expected into early Saturday morning; great weather ahead for the holiday weekend

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on July 2, 2016

At the moment, two different systems is creating the risk for some precipitation across the Ocean State. Any sunshine moving out of the overcast skies may help increase the instability in our atmosphere, stemming from a surface low moving into New Jersey. This low will help create scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm through the afternoon and early evening.

The other system is a much stronger cold front, making its way into western New York and Pennsylvania. This front will push through during the overnight hours. So, we may see more widespread showers and rain, with possible thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Expect heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and small hail. Also, dangerous cloud to ground lightning is possible. The best time to expect any strong thunderstorms would be between 7 p.m. and 2 a.m. Please check your town’s schedule for fireworks shows, since some have already been cancelled. After 2 a.m., we will see some lingering showers, before all precipitation ends by sunrise. It will be muggy and warm tonight, with lows in the middle 60’s. By mid-morning on Saturday, we will see increasing sunshine, less humidity, and highs in the lower 80’s. We will continue to be under the influence of high pressure from the Midwest right into the 4th of July. Expect Saturday night’s lows to be in the lower 60’s.

This means sunny skies and warm temperatures for Sunday and Monday. It will be picture perfect weather for any beach day, barbecue, or fireworks show for the next few days. Expect Sunday and Monday’s highs to range in the lower to middle 80’s, and low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to middle 60’s.

By Monday night, a high pressure system will slowly come down from central Canada and over the eastern Great Lakes. This will help suppress a low pressure system to remain over the Carolinas entering Tuesday. So, with high pressure still in charge, expect mostly sunny skies with daytime highs in the lower to middle 80’s, and lows in the middle 60’s.

By Wednesday, a weak upper-level ridge will move over the Northeast U.S. This ridge will allow tropical air to move further north. With high pressure still right over Southern New England, expect sunny skies and temperatures rising into the upper 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the middle 60’s with partly cloudy skies. It will remain warm and sunny on Thursday, although the high pressure center does move further into the Atlantic. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80’s, with lows Thursday night in the middle to upper 60’s.

A frontal boundary following the jet stream will move over Northern New England next Friday afternoon. However, we will still be protected by the high pressure ridge. So, expect mostly sunny skies during the morning, with increasing clouds by the afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the middle 80’s., and overnight lows in the middle 60’s. Looking ahead to next Saturday, the front is forecast to slowly drift south, as the high pressure ridge begins to break down. We may have our first chance at significant rainfall after 3 a.m. Saturday, as the American model shows precipitation falling over the Ocean State by this time.

First Pitch Forecast (for McCoy Stadium, home of the Pawtucket Red Sox):

July 2nd vs. Columbus (6:05 p.m.): Partly cloudy, 79.

July 3rd vs. Columbus (6:05 p.m.): Partly cloudy, 80.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.