JIM CRAMER: "THIS IS THE YEAR..."

JIM CRAMER, the thoughtful, low-key, soft-spoken, sober-minded, faux economic analyst who hosts CNBC’s Mad Money, was invited by the Today show to appear on New Year’s Day and offer his predictions for 2015.

[If you’re thinking what I’m thinking, you’re right: The word “crazy” doesn’t even begin to describe the thinking that went into having this walking, talking PSA about the dangers of Adderall on a somewhat-credible news/entertainment show.]

Asked by Matt Lauer if 2015 will “be the year that Americans see a real raise in terms of their ability to have a good lifestyle,” Mr. MadMoney replied, “Yes. Because this is the year where the companies have so much profit that it would be embarrassing if they didn’t return some of it to the workers.”

Huh?

This is the year?

What about 2010?

The American middle- and working-classes were struggling to extricate themselves from the rubble of the 2008 economic meltdown. Those who still had jobs saw their compensation increase less than 0.5%. Meanwhile, after-tax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP reached a level the country had not seen since 1929---9.1%. By the way, does the year 1929 ring a bell for you?

What about 2011 and 2012?

After-tax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP surpassed the record set in 2010 by reaching 9.5% in 2011 and 9.9% in 2012. Meanwhile, employee compensation percentages dropped to levels the country hadn’t seen since---wait for it!---1929.

What about 2013?

According to Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius, after-tax corporate profits grew by an astonishing 11.2% (tied with the highest percentage increase on record (1965). Meanwhile, as a share of the economy, employee compensation grew by barely 2%---the lowest increase since 1948. Simply put, 2013 saw “corporate profits grow five times faster than wages.”

What about 2014?

As of this writing, the data has not been compiled and published, but what we do know is that stocks spent the year breaking through ceilings heretofore thought unattainable and it was reported generally that after-tax corporate profits in Q2 and Q3 reached what were characterized as “record highs.”  We also know that, while profits were continuing to spiral upward, wage stagnation continued. The average wage of the American worker grew at a paltry 1.7% in 2014, which in all probability will mean a second consecutive year in which corporate profits grew five times faster than wages.

In other words, given after-tax corporate profits for 2010-2014 relative to the wage stagnation that threatens the very existence of viable American middle- and working-classes, someone needs to ask Mr. Cramer why Corporate America hasn’t been embarrassed before now about returning some of those proceeds “to the workers?”

So, What about 2015?

A good follow-up would be to ask Mr. Cramer why he thinks Corporate America would, in 2015, suddenly become embarrassed at not returning “to the workers” some of the embarrassment of riches to which it is privy?

America’s middle- and working-classes have waited 35 years for “trickle-down economics”---better described as “voodoo economics”---to “trickle down” on them. Mr. MadMoney believes that 2015 is The Year. He suggests you “Get your umbrella. This is the year you’ll be trickled down upon.”

My guess?

The statistical evidence is undeniable that, for the past 35 years, the American economic system has been systematically rigged by tax cuts, tax breaks, tax loopholes and deregulatory actions instituted by legislators/lobbyists at the behest of and on behalf of wealthy corporations/individuals. And that same data---35 years of it!---indicates that this rigged system has functioned to redistribute capital and create wealth for one group and one group only---the already wealthy.

Why would I think that the same system would produce different results in the 36th- year of its current run?

I wouldn’t.

Hence, my economic forecast for the American worker in 2015: As has been the case for the past 35 years, you will work harder, produce more but continue to fall behind. In other words, you can leave your umbrella in the closet---you will not be trickled down upon.