Coronavirus: Austin Officials Change Illness 'Recovery' Data

AUSTIN, TX — Austin Public Health officials on Thursday announced they would change calculations on estimated numbers of recovered cases from the coronavirus to parallel state critiera.

The new method of calculating recoveries from illness is designed to align with new criteria established by the Texas Department of State Health Services, local health officials said. The criteria used by state health officials is an estimate based on several assumptions related to hospitalization rates and recovery times.

The result of the new calculation method will reult in increased numbers compared to what Austin Public Health has previously been reporting on a stastical dashboard that is updated daily, local officials said.

Austin Public Health officials explained how their Department of State Health Services counterparts calculate estimated recovery numbers:

1. Including total confirmed cases.
2. Removing any fatalities.
3. Estimating that approximately 20 percent of remaining cases required hospitalization and approximately 80 percent of remaining cases did not receive hospitalization (based on published study of trends in China).
4. Estimating that recovery time for hospitalized patients is approximately 32 days, and recovery time for non-hospitalized patients is approximately 14 days

Prior to this change, local officials said, the recovery number presented on the dashboard was based on “reported” recoveries at the time of the case investigation.

"Case investigation requires extensive and time-consuming work and also results in a lag in data and an untimely representation of recovered patients," Austin Public Health officials said. "During the case investigation process, when an epidemiologist contacts the patient, they may still be experiencing symptoms and would not be classified as recovered at that time."

With the new recovery estimate, the formula allows for a more accurate recovered number for our community based on the assumptions laid out.

“This approach will align us with DSHS reporting,” Austin Public Health Chief Epidemiologist Janet Pichette said. “It’ll provide a much better idea of the cases that have recovered in our community.”

For more information and updates, visit AustinTexas.gov/COVID19.