Here’s How Sweltering Austin Stands To Get In 2050

AUSTIN, TX — So you think it's hot now, do you? As a sweltering heat wave brings potentially deadly heat and humidity to a large swath of the nation, a new report shows what communities face in the future as a result of extreme temperatures fueled by human-caused climate change.

Few areas will emerge unscathed. This according to a report released last week by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit advocacy group based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Historically, Austin averages about 108 days when the heat index reaches at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the report's data. Of those, there are historically 29 days when the heat index registers at least 100 degrees — meaning that while the official temp is lower, it feels much higher.

Ah, but here's the rub. By mid-century, those readings will be exponentially higher given the current climactic pace. Here are the number of high heat index days Austin will see in the not-too-distant future under three distinct scenarios in combating climate change now: Slow, none and rapid response.

Below is a temp-by-temp futuristic look at those extremely hot, if not dystopian, scenarios envisioned by scientists.

Days per year with a heat index above 90 degrees (currently 108 on average in Austin, historically speaking):

MID-CENTURY SCENARIOS

• Slow action — 143
• No action — 149

LATE CENTURY

• Slow action — 150
• No action — 173
• Rapid action — 145

Days per year with a heat index above 100 degrees (currently 29 on average):

MID-CENTURY

• Slow action — 82
• No action — 95

LATE CENTURY

• Slow action — 90
• No action — 129
• Rapid action — 82

Days per year with a heat index above 105 degrees (currently 5 on average):

MID-CENTURY

• Slow action — 42
• No action — 59

LATE CENTURY

• Slow action — 52
• No action — 101
• Rapid action — 42

Should the globe take no action to reduce emissions, the average number of days across the country that feel warmer than 100 degrees will more than double to about 36 by mid-century, researchers found. By century's end, scientists added, that number would increase to 54.

The analyis shows a "hotter future that's hard to imagine," Kristina Dahl, senior climate scientist at the organization and co-author of the report, said in a prepared statement: “Nearly everywhere, people will experience more days of dangerous heat even in the next few decades.”

If emissions aren’t reduced, parts of Texas (and Florida too) would see at least five months per year with a heat index of at least 100 degrees by the end of the century. Most of these days would exceed 105 degrees. Worse, many days would be so extreme as to be classified as "off the charts" — beyond the measuring parameters of the National Weather Service itself — in a condition currently only seen in the Sonora desert on the border of southern California and Arizona.

“Such conditions could pose unprecedented health risks,” Dahl said.

Many places are unaccustomed to these levels of extreme heat, such as the upper Midwest, Northeast and Northwest, and the ability of people and infrastructure in these places to cope with the new normal is “woefully inadequate,” added Rachel Licker, senior climate scientist at the organization and report co-author.

The Southeast and Southern Great Plains are expected to bear the brunt of the extreme heat, the authors found, and by late century, residents in these areas “...may have to significantly alter ways of life,” Licker noted: “ We don’t know what people would be able and willing to endure, but such heat could certainly drive large-scale relocation of residents toward cooler regions.”