Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts Mild Texas Winter, NOAA Says No

AUSTIN, TX — Somewhere, Benjamin Franklin is fuming.

The Old Farmer's Almanac founded by the eccentric Founding Father — typically uncannily accurate in its weather prognostications with a not-too-shabby 80 percent accuracy rate — is predicting a a milder and drier Texas winter than normal, with below-average snowfall in the parts of the state that get the white stuff for 2018-19.

This prediction extends to neighboring Oklahoma as well.

"The coldest periods will be in late December, late January, and mid-February, with the best chances for snow in mid- and late December, early January, and mid-February," the trusted guide reads. Franklin's weather-predicting successors since his founding of the guide boast of their "secret formula" and solar science methods predicating their predictions.

Not so fast says the National Weather Service in what Franklin would surely take with great umbrage as some sort of personal affront. Contrary to what the Old Farmer's Almanac has recently issued in the way of a seasonal forecast, the NOAA is predicting above-average precipitation in Texas this winter given the likelihood El Niño will make its presence known — a 70 percent chance of this occurring, the agency says.

Map via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The presence of El Niño ushers in a colder and wetter winter across the southern United States, don't you know. Moreover, El Niño tends to bring cooler temperatures to the southern region of the U.S. of which Texas is a part.

Meteorologist Bryan Rupp takes this scenario further, predicting a frigid, potentially snowier-than-normal winter as very likely. In his delightfully titled blog "Bryan's Basics To Life," Rupp shares maps to buttress his predictions of a very cold Texas winter, highlighting areas that could experience above-average precipitation and colder temperatures should El Niño visit the region.

While the Spanish term El Niño invokes visions of a benign small boy, one shouldn't dismiss its potent impact to the Texas-Oklahoma region. The irregularly occurring and complex series of climactic changes incongruously dubbed El Niño figured prominently in ending a five-year drought two years ago in Wichita Falls, leading to a record 17 inches of rain in May of 2016 alone.

And its presence during the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009 contributed to nearly a foot of snow across North Texas and the southern portions of Oklahoma, prompting the closure of multiple roads and stranding thousands of unawares motorists in snow drifts several feet in depth.

Map via NOAA, likely much to Franklin's chagrin

So take your pick, fellow Texans: Follow the sage guidance and so-called secret formula of Founding Father Franklin in preparing for this year's winter season or turn to the national weather people with their fancy, state-of-the art weather-predicting contraptions.

Either way, after triple-digit heat that's come in long streaks measured in weeks rather than on intermittent in much of Texas during this unforgiving, oppressively brutal summer, any amount of cold might be come as sweet and welcome relief.

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>>> Photo of Benjamin Franklin with a sour-looking countenance he might effect toward the NOAA via New York Public Library Digital Collections, public domain