Trump Lead Over Clinton In Texas Narrows To Six Points

AUSTIN, TX -- GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has a narrow 6-point lead against his Democratic rival in Texas, according to a new survey released Tuesday.

The findings by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling are significant given that the Lone Star state is solidly Republican, and has been for decades. And with about three months left until Election Day, the numbers might give Trump's campaign staff some pause.

In Texas, Trump leads Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 44 percent, according to the newly release poll. The survey conducted Friday through Sunday comprises responses of 944 likely voters. The poll's margin of error is 3.2 percent, according to a Public Policy Polling news advisory.

Putting the survey numbers in context, it should be note that Mitt Romney bested Barack Obama by 26 points in Texas during the 2012 political contest.

The survey also yields a 6 percent support among voters for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson an 2 percent for Green Party hopeful Jill Stein.

"A Democratic victory in Texas this year remains a stretch but within the numbers there are signs of Democrats being positioned to become seriously competitive there in the years ahead," the survey's authors write. "Trump's lead is based entirely on his holding a 63-33 advantage among seniors."

Among voters under 65, Clinton leads Trump 49-45, the survey found. A closer, more focused, look at voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35, according to the survey.

"Older voters are overwhelmingly responsible for the Republican advantage in Texas, and generational change is likely to help Democrats become more competitive," survey officials wrote.

"A big piece of that generational change is the increasing racial diversity of the electorate in Texas," PPL officials wrote. "Trump has a 69/25 lead with white voters but the reason the state's so competitive overall is that among non-white voters Clinton has a 73-21 lead, including a 68-27 edge with the state's booming Hispanic population."

While Clinton remains unpopular in Texas (with a 36/59 favorability rating), Trump's not much better with just 40% of voters seeing him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion, PPL officials said.

Trump's refusal to release his tax returns emerged in the PPL survey as a major point of contention among likely voters. The real estate mogul has declined repeated requests to release his returns, saying he is under "routine audit" and has thus been advised not to release them during the IRS examination (even though tax experts have said publicly that an audit doesn't preclude anyone from sharing the returns).

"The tax return issue continues to plague Trump with 64% of voters thinking he needs to release his returns to only 25% who don't think it's necessary for him to. Even Trump's supporters, by a 43/41 spread, think he should release them," PPL officials said.

Trump also has telegraphed the possibility he might not participate the debate, sending off preemptive cover by suggesting the system is rigged against his election (a ploy he used during the primaries that he later abandoned given his ascendancy to the nomination).

"Another issue that has the potential to cause Trump problems down the road is if he refuses to participate in the debates as scheduled. 77% of voters think he needs to do that to only 14% who don't think he needs to and among his own supporters there's an even stronger sentiment -- 82/12 [percent] --- that Trump needs to participate. If Trump is stubborn about that it could cause the bottom to fall out on his support even further."

Yet his contention that the system is "rigged" against him is a ploy that's working in Texas, with many of the survey takers expressing empathy with his assessment, according to the poll.

"We continue to find that Trump voters overwhelmingly buy into his preemptive claims about the election being rigged," PPL officials wrote. "Just 19% of Trump voters grant that if Clinton wins the election it will be because she got more votes, while 71% say that it will just be because the election was rigged."

Interestingly -- an light-shedding on the uniqueness of Trump followers -- some 40% of his likely voters think that ACORN will steal the election for Clinton. But ACORN (the Association for Community Organizers for Reform Now) hasn't existed in years.

The group that once catered to low-income members of society -- including helping them register to vote -- was undone after a pair of conservative activists in 2009 secretly recorded ACORN low-level personnel, later manipulating the video to make staffers appear to be encouraging criminal behavior.

The ensuing controversy led to a loss of funding after the issue was embraced as a cause célèbre among conservative lawmakers. By early 2010, some 30 ACORN state chapters had closed due to its funding loss, and a subsequent Chapter 7 bankruptcy led to the liquidation of the group's assets -- effectively shuttering ACORN completely by November 2010.

To see the full PPL poll findings, click here.