How Snowy, Cold Will Winter Be In VA? New Predictions Released

An El Niño climate pattern "supersizing" in the Pacific is driving a new seasonal outlook that offers an early look at how much snow Virginia could get this winter.

With a greater than 90 percent chance of continuing and a 75 percent probability of reaching historic strength, a powerful El Niño is expected to significantly influence global weather this winter, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. Such intense El Niño conditions typically shift the main jet stream, channeling abundant tropical moisture across the southern United States and driving active storm tracks north along the Atlantic Seaboard.

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The new seasonal outlook for December, January and February reflects a classic strong El Niño pattern. In Virginia, temperatures for the northern region will probably be 33-40% higher than in an average year, with temperatures leaning 40-50% higher in the southern part of the state.

In addition, precipitation may be 40-50% higher from the Blue Ridge Mountains to Northern Virginia and possibly 40-50% above normal in the Tidewater region.

Forecasters said the new seasonal outlook reflects a classic strong El Niño pattern, with generally warmer conditions favored across the northern United States and wetter weather across much of the South.

The Northwest and parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes lean drier, while the northern tier, including the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes, has some of the best odds for a warmer-than-normal winter.

California is expected to turn increasingly wet as winter gets underway. The Southeast is the part of the country most likely to be wetter than normal, although temperatures there are expected to stay closer to normal because El Niño often brings cooler winter weather to the region.

The Northeast also generally leans warmer than normal, with wetter conditions favored in some areas along the East Coast.